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22.09.2005
POLAND'S ELECTIONS Jan Rokita – The Triumph of the Politician - Intellectual |
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| Simon Araloff, AIA European section | ||||
Favorable Forecast for the Right-Centrist Parties According to the results of the last polls, in the forthcoming on September 25 elections to the Parliament of Poland (Sejm) the victory will be gained by the right-centrist party Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska - PO) led by Jan Rokita (33% of the votes, by 8% more, than in the beginning of September). Second place by popularity is currently occupied by another right-centrist Law and Justice Party (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc - PiS; 27%, by 4 % more than in the beginning of September). Thus, the tendency of popularity growth of the right camp outlined in the middle of the last year, is stable prior to the elections. If the forecasts of the public opinion truly reflect the moods in the Polish society, at this stage it is already possible to speak about creation in the nearest future of a strong right-centrist bloc. It is also probable tha this bloc will be joined by the Catholic League of Polish Families (Liga Polskich Rodzin - LPR), which is currently predicted to receive about 9% of the votes (41 seat in the Sejm). More to the right from these parties on a political spectrum of Poland there is the Self Defense (Samooborona) Party, which is predicted to gain a significant success at the forthcoming elections - up to 12% of the votes. Samooborona is a party of "eurosceptics", mainly consisting of representatives of the agrarian sector of the Polish economy, dissatisfied with rigid requirements of the European Community's management imposed on the Polish manufacturers of agricultural production. Its leadership acquired unflattering publicity by a loud protest actions (like blocking of the large highways) and scandalous statements of nationalist sense. For this reason the representatives of PO and PiS have hastened to declare beforehand their unwillingness to see Samooborona as a member of the future coalition. However, from the point of view of the right bloc, there is no practical necessity to adding Samooborona to the coalition. As for the left camp, its situation, according to the polls, is simply pitiable. The ruling Democratic Left Alliance (Sojuz Lewicy Demokratycznej - SLD) continues to lose support of the voters. Today it is predicted to get only 6% of the votes - even less, than LPR. And the Polish Peasant Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe - PSL), which recently abandoned the alliance with the SLD, is even in a worse condition. At the moment it is not clear, whether these parties will be able to pass the electoral barrier. "Going for Power" The lawyer by education, Jan Maria Wladyslaw Rokita was one of the activists of the academic branch of the Solidarity movement in the 1980s. Academic style remained in his today's approach to development of the program of actions of the future government. In particular, concerning the future foreign policy of Poland, Rokita is going to come into power with a scientifically developed geopolitical concept. Already just for that he deserves honor and recognition as the one of the most intellectual politicians of today's Europe. Jan Rokita expressed his vision of Poland's geopolitical role in the modern world in many scientific and political statements during the last year. In his opinion, Poland, on the territory of which the well-known Solidarity movement has appeared in the beginning of the 1980s, was the basic inspirer and engine of democratization process in Central and Eastern Europe at the end of the XX century. The leader of Platforma Obywatelska considers that there is nothing surprising in that, as Poland for many centuries was the political and cultural center of the region, which included also the territory of the modern Ukraine and Belarus. It exported the ideas of parliamentarism and European integration to its neighbors. And today's Europe, which substantially has adopted the ideas of integration from the countries of Central Europe, should remember that. The Poles have nothing to apologize for before the "old" Europe; they should demand an equal status among equals, which they have deserved throughout their history. And this status gives them the full right to have an active international position, which Rokita names "Going for Power ". First of all, it means a more active participation in the military campaigns similar to the Iraqi, and also the active support of democratization process in the neighboring Ukraine and Belarus ("The Tyrant should go!"). Both these countries are included into the traditional sphere of the Polish influence, no less than Lithuania, cooperation with which Rokita brings as a successful example of association of efforts on creation of the united and democratic Eastern Europe. He also actively supports the accession into the EU of such countries as Bulgaria and Romania (Rokita objects to postponing the date of their introduction to the later term), and also of Moldova, Georgia and even Turkey. This process, in his opinion, will create friendly geopolitical space surrounding, space of geopolitical security around Poland, which suffered for from an unprofitable geopolitical position between Germany and Russia. Simultaneously, on the map of the united Europe the powerful Eastern bloc, possessing sufficient political weight for conducting a dialogue "of the equals" with the Old Europe will appear. And Warsaw certainly will be in the center of this bloc. Rokita's geopolitical doctrine also includes a precise indication who are the main opponents and allies of the idea of Poland's strengthening. First of all, position of the Germany's present political elite passively supporting revanchist moods in the German society comes under his sharp criticism. "Just as Poles do not demand returning of the lost property from the neighboring Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus, the German leadership should stop any attempts to reroll back the results of the WW II", Rokita declares. Thus, the leader of the Polish opposition reminds that the German and the communistic occupations of Poland undermined its economy and infrastructures and detained the process of its integration into the European community for five decades. In this context Rokita also mentions Russia. As he said, as well as in Germany's case, relations with Poland's eastern neighbor demand a careful restoration in a view of more than problematic past. If this process depended entirely on Warsaw, the leader of Platforma Obywatelska asserts that the progress would have been achieved long ago. However, it is Moscow's fault that the relations between the two countries are in a mess. The Russians intentionally drive in a wedge between the "new" and the "old" members of the EU, they interfere with development of relations between Poland and the CIS countries, and also carry out a policy of "power blackmail" towards Warsaw. As an example of an unfriendly behavior of Russia directed to split of the European unity, Jan Rokita names the contract signed in 2005 between the Russian gas giant "Gazprom" and the German concern BASF on deliveries of the natural gas through the bottom of the Baltic Sea, outflanking Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics. Speaking about the strategic allies of Poland, Rokita first of all distinguishes the United States of America and Great Britain. He states that the Poles wish for the increase in political and economic power of Europe, however they realize, that the main guarantor of their security is America. The Poles rely on the American and British leaderships, especially during the times of crisis. The well-known frank phrase of Rokita goes like that:"Poland definitely trusts Britain more than France and Germany". For this reason the leader of Platforma Obywatelska declares, that the American presence in Europe, first of all within the framework of NATO, is completely necessary. In the view of such a position, Rokita considers Warsaw as one of the basic props of the Atlantic geopolitical bridge between Brussels and Washington. His main ideas Jan Rokita sounded at the Centre-Right Parties Visegrad Summit, which took place on June 5, 2005 in Prague. "Our task is defining a new spirit in Central Europe", Rokita declared to the participants of the summit. The leader of the Polish opposition stated that only to the right parties of the region may accomplish this task demanded their active participation in formation of the so-called "Common European neighborhood policy towards the East". "The Carpathian Mountains and the Bug River will not become an obstacle for democratization process," he declared. "It is our task, the Central Europe's task until the other Europe that lives today in an atmosphere of egoism, does not realize this fact and will not take corresponding political and economic steps to support the process. " Rokita's speech at the summit ended like this: "Today in Prague, The Hungarian Fides, the Czech ODS, the Slovak SDCU and the Polish Civic Platform begin a synchronized common run for to "power." But we are not only going for power, we are going to rise up the level of politics in our region, we are going for power to fulfill ambitious goals, our hopes and our ideals." If the results of the polls reflect the true moods of the Polish voters, it is possible to assert with confidence, that within the next few days one of the brightest and talented politicians of today's Europe will come to power in Poland. Related items: POLAND – PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THE POLAND'S ELECTIONS: On the Threshold of a Right-Centrist Revolution (03.09.2005) Lukashenko's War on Poles (04.08.2005) The Guardians of Europe: Polish secret service protects the borders of the European Union (22.05.2005) The Great Game for Poland (17.05.2005) Schroeder - Putin Pact: Germany and Russia Divide Europe Again (04.05.2005) |
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