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| Shamil Basayev |
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On the night of the 9th and the 10th of July, Shamil Basayev was exterminated in the territory of the North Caucasian republic of Ingushetia. He was considered to be one of the first-rate military leaders in the modern history of Chechen separatism. Since 1995, Basayev had been permanently occupying leading positions in the Russian lists of the most wanted persons. In spite of this fact, he managed to outlive the majority of his well-known brothers-in-arms. Many legends were told about him being unchatchable. In the last years, Basayev played a key role in leading the operations of the Islamic mojahedins all over the North Caucasus, and became a symbol of the anti-Russian forces in this region. His extermination will make it into history as one of the Russian special services' main achievements in the period of President Putin's rule.
New strategy's result
The fact of extermination of the known Chechen warlord was personally reported to the Russian leader by the Head of the Federal Security Service Nikolay Patrushev. Official reports say that FSB was the one in charge of planning and carrying out of this mission. During his meeting with the President, the FSB chief particularly emphasized that "this mission became possible due to the fact that operational positions were created abroad". Consequently, Basayev's elimination had been prepared on the basis of information that was collected by the special services both in the North Caucasus, and beyond Russia's borders. Thus, this operation became the most notable result of a strategy change, which took place in the work of the Kremlin's secret services after the seizure of the theater in Moscow by the Chechen militants in October, 2002. Prior to that, fighting the separatist movement and the Islamic underground in the North Caucasus, Russian special services confined themselves to the territory of their own State, and, in some cases, to the neighboring republics of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. After the seizure of the Moscow theater, which reflected one of the biggest failures in the work of the special services, the latter, following the Kremlin's order, stretched their activity to such countries of the Middle East and North Africa, as Turkey, Persian Gulf monarchies, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, and Algeria. In distinction from traditional geopolitical objectives, which were pursued by Moscow's special services in these regions since the Soviet times, now their priority goals here were related to the situation in the North Caucasus. A priority has been placed on representatives of the Chechen Diaspora, Islamic theologists and activists of religious and political organizations, rendering ideological, financial, or military aide to the North Caucasian mojahedins. By doing that, two main aims have been pursued: preventing this aide, and broadening of the agent network among the anti-Russian forces in the Caucasus, in particular among the foreign Islamic mojahedins. First clear signs of realization of this new strategy were the assassinations of the foreign volunteers' leader in the North Caucasus, Emir Khattab, in March, 2002, and of the former active Chechen President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, in Qatar, in February 2004. On a par with "chechenization" of the conflict in Chechnya, realization of this new strategy allowed the Kremlin to considerably undermine positions of the separatist movement in this republic.
In 2000-2006, despite such events as turnabout of a significant part of former supporters of independence to the side of the federal authority, creation of numerous pro-Russian security bodies, and elimination of the majority of separatist leaders (in particular, the former President Aslan Maskhadov), the military actions in Chechnya not only have not ceased, but even stretched out to the neighboring republics of the North Caucasus. This process was promoted by a number of factors connected first of all to the socio-economic and political situation in these republics, and, consequently, the growing radicalization of a significant part of the local youth. Nevertheless, the main inspirator and the leader of jihad movement's expansion all over the North Caucasus in the last years was no other than Shamil Basayev.
Way to worldwide publicity
He was born in 1965 in Vedeno District of Chechnya, and did not outstand in any way till the last days of the Soviet regime. He was first noticed by his countrymen in November, 1991. Then, after the supporters of independence came into power in Chechnya, Moscow declared the state of emergency in the rebel republic. In order to achieve the cancellation of this order, Basayev together with several of his aids, seized a civil airplane in Stavropol Area, making its crew fly to Turkey. Easily returning to his homeland shortly after, he played one of the key roles in creation of the first armed forces of the separatist regime. In 1992, together with a group of his close fellows, he moved to another rebel republic, Abkhazia, which was then in the state of an armed conflict with Georgia's central authorities. There Basayev showed himself for the first time as a bold and talented military commander, and was even appointed the deputy minister of defense in the Abkhazian government. This brought his fame that stretched all over the North Caucasus.
When military actions began in Chechnya in 1994, Basayev's group, due to its Abkhazian experience, showed itself as one of the most combat-effective Chechen armed formations. In June, 1995, Basayev headed his group in a bold mission, at the depth of the Russian territory, seizing a hospital and hostages in Stavropol Area. The then Prime Minister of Russia Victor Chernomyrdin was the one to negotiate the hostages' release with Basayev by phone. All of a sudden, Basayev became a "hero" of the main reports and actuality programs of dozens of Russian and foreign TV channels, gaining international publicity. That time he managed to get back to his homeland again, and after that he played one of the key roles in activation of the separatists' military action in Chechnya, in the summer of 1996, which allowed the signing of the Khasavyurt Agreements on conflict termination (August, 1996).
After Chechnya gained its independence, Basayev came forward as a candidate on the presidential elections of January, 1997. He was particularly popular among the young people and among the most radical part of those who participated in the first military campaign. As a result, Basayev received 24 per cent of the votes, which made him the second after the winner, the moderate candidate Aslan Maskhadov. Hereafter, despite his temporary membership in the new government, Basayev became one of the main leaders of the radical anti-Maskhadov opposition. As such, he step forward in support of the anti-Russian forces of Islamic orientation in other republics of the North Caucasus. In August, 1999, Basayev headed the campaign of the Chechen opposition's armed groups to neighboring Dagestan, with the aim of rendering military aide to the opponents of the secular pro-Russian authority. This process promoted the appointment of Vladimir Putin at the post of the Russian Prime Minister in August, 1999, and afterwards allowed the Kremlin to start the second military campaign in Chechnya (September – November, 1999), which put an end to the separatist regime in the republic.
Caucasian prospective
With the elimination of some pronounced warlords in the first years of the second campaign, Basayev filled the lead position in the military command of the separatists. After the loss of Aslan Maskhadov in March 2005, he had actually concentrated in his hands both, military and the political leadership of the separatist movement in Chechnya. Simultaneously, Basayev has staked on the realization of an old idea about the carry-over of military actions to whole territory of the North Caucasus. At his participation, the military infrastructure of the Islamic underground in other republics of the region, first of all in Dagestan, Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Ingushetia was created.
Moreover, Basayev personally had planned and commanded most of the large operations of the underground that have been carried out last years. After Basayev's elimination, the local anti-Russian forces still have only one leader of the All-Caucasian scale, his closest companion and like-minded fellow, Doku Umarov. Now it is he who has won achieved the first place in the list of the persons especially searched by the Russian secret services. In the case of his liquidation, supporters of the jihadist movement inevitably would collide in a leadership crisis.
Among the young generation of Chechen rebels there is no figure capable, even partially to replace Basayev and Umarov, especially in the regional scale.
Despite of the statements of the local pro-Russian politicians, such a development of events would hardly mean the end of the Islamic underground in the North Caucasus. Most likely, this will entail only infringement of coordination between its local branches and would cause emergence of the new, younger and even more radical local leaders. The united «Caucasian front» of Basayev and Umarov would most likely disintegrate into fine armed groups of 20-years-old religious fanatics, who are poorly connected with each other, but in no way less aggressive. In parallel, the leaders of the Dagestan Islamists, at last, even formally, could apply for the leading position on the level of regional jihadist movement, instead of their Chechen adherents.
As a result, instead of the long-time well studied old leaders of the Islamic underground in the Caucasus, the Russian secret services would collide with a set of fine, much less predictable commanders of a local level.
The first, they will mainly operate in the native environment that’s why they can count on greater support of the local population, especially among their contemporaries.
Secondly, the representatives of the new generation of Islamic commanders, in much smaller degree will be connected with each other, so it would be even more complicated to detect and neutralize them. And, thirdly, they cannot count any more on the financial support from abroad that the well-known Shamil Basayev used to enjoy in the Muslim world. Accordingly, they should extract the means for the activity first of all in a place of their residing that would inevitably cause even greater growth of the crime rate in the North Caucasus. So, although the elimination of Shamil Basayev is a really significant achievement of the Russian secret services, in the foreseeable future it would hardly bring the pacification to the region.
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Mossad Agents Eliminated in the Northern Caucasus (27.03.06)
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Reasons for Kremlin's Defeat in the Clandestine War (16.10.05)
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Mossad Will Separate the North Caucasus From Russia (14.10.05)
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