The pre-election campaign, which started on 15th June, ended yesterday midnight. Macedonia has entered into this so-called “black-out” period immediately preceding the voting day. Since 24th June no serious incidents have occurred. Is this a kind of “silence before the storm”? Does the way that the campaign started suggest that there will be trouble on voting day tomorrow? Here is a general data on one of the most intensely observed elections in the Balkans…
Main blocs in the electoral race
A total of 33 political parties of coalitions and 2 independent lists will take part in the general elections of Macedonia tomorrow. 2700 candidates organised in 135 lists that spread across 6 constituencies will compete according the proportional system in order to enter into the parliament with 120 seats. No legal threshold is required for parties to enter the parliament.
The fact than one third of the population is Albanian divides the political scene in two major blocs: one Macedonian and one Albanian.
| |
|
| |
.JPG) |
| |
Vlado Buckovski |
Macedonian bloc
- “Together for Macedonia” coalition under the leadership of Prime Minister Vlado Buckovski consists of Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), Liberal Democratic Party, VMRO-Macedonia and Democratic Party of Serbs.
At the last elections in September 2002 this coalition won 60 seats in parliament and came to power to serve 4- year terms.
- The large coalition led by the main opposition leader Nikola Gruevski’s Internal Macedonian Revolutionary
| |
|
 |
|
| Ljubco Georgievski |
|
Organisation - Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) consists of Socialist Party of Macedonia, Democratic Alliance, Party of Turkish Movement of Macedonia, Party for Democratic Action of Macedonia, Party of Vlachs, People’s Movement of Macedonia, Union of Romas in Macedonia, European Party of Macedonia, Green Party, Party of Democratic Forces of Romas and Party of Romas’ Integration.
At the last elections this coalition won 33 seats and consigned to opposition.
- A series of splits from the two major parties (SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE) in previous years makes these elections highly critical. New Social Democratic Party (NSDP) was formed in November 2005 by several members, who split from SDSM under the leadership of Tito Petkovski. And former leader and Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski’s radical nationalist camp split from VMRO-DPMNE right after the electoral defeat in September 2002, and founded their own party, VMRO-Narodna (VMRO-NP).
For these two parties did not participate in any elections so far, their performances at these elections are hardly predictable. Probably they will divide the votes of SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE, since all of them fight for the same electoral body.
Albanian bloc
- The coalition led by Ali Ahmeti’s Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) consists of Abduljhadi Vejseli’s Albanian Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP) and the League of Bosnians.
At the last elections DUI won 16 seats and became the main coalition partner of SDSM. At the same elections PDP won 2 seats in parliament.
- Arben Xhaferi’s Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) campaigned alone. DPA is the eternal rival of DUI and vowed to
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Arben Xhaferi |
revenge its defeat at the last local elections in March 2005 on the latter, which won most of the Albanian vote.
At the last elections DPA won 7 seats in parliament. The party is the main Albanian opposition party.
Last polls
In Macedonia there are 1.741.449 eligible voters. At the last general elections, the turnout was 73.18 percent. Due to the high season of summer vacation, however, turnout rate is expected to be lower this time. However, the voting day coincides with the period where Albanian migrant workers usually come back from their Western European residences for annual vacation leave. Another important note is that there is no mechanism for out-of-country voting in Macedonia.
- According to the poll undertaken by the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) between 12th-16th June, 25.60 percent will vote for VMRO-DPMNE, 17.20 for SDSM, 18.10 for DUI, 17.60 for DPA, 8.70 for NSDP, 5.10 for VMRO-NP and 7.70 for others.
- According to the nationwide poll undertaken by the Independent Institute for Democracy on 24th June, 29.4 percent will vote for VMRO-DPMNE, 21.9 for SDSM, 16.4 for DUI and 9.9 for DPA.
- According to the last poll undertaken by IFIMES between 26th-28th June, 25.90 percent will vote for VMRO-DPMNE, 17.10 for SDSM, 17.20 for DUI, 17.90 for DPA, 7.80 for NSDP, 6.20 for VMRO-NP and 7.90 for others.
At the last IFIMES poll, only 57.40 percent confirm that they will vote on 5th July, while 16.50 percent are still undecided. Some 42.4 percent of the people surveyed by the Independent Institute for Democracy are undecided for whom to vote. The same poll also confirms that the opposition leader Nikola Gruevski is the most trusted politician, at 17.6 percent, while Vlado Buckovski trailed at 6.6 percent.
These polls clearly show that a victory of VMRO-DPMNE on 5th July would not be a great surprise. Besides Vlado Buckovski, announcing that he would be ready for a large post-election coalition has already, though implicitly, implied the defeat of his party at these elections.
Actually whoever wins, his would be a relative victory, since the winner will have to form a coalition government in any case. Whether the coalition bargains would take as long as they did in Bulgaria at the last elections in June 2005 is to be seen.
A hellish campaign
Although since 24th June no serious incidents have occurred, the first ten days of the pre-election campaign made an extremely negative impression on the international community.
Fighting, shooting, vandalism, lynch attempts, bomb blasts and bulldozers marked these elections as the worst elections that Macedonia has ever witnessed in its short history. The interior ministry has pressed charges in 12 cases: 7 for criminal acts and 5 for violations.
Now that the atmosphere is calmed down, many analysts fear a kind of “silence before the storm”. Does the way that the campaign started suggest that there will be trouble on voting day tomorrow?
Sadly enough, most of the incidents involved the two major Albanian parties, DUI and DPA, while only one major incident occurred between the activists of SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE. This gave the Macedonian nationalists a precious opportunity to assert that the Albanians block up the Euro-Atlantic integration of Macedonia.
The general conduct and the outcome of these elections will be decisive for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Macedonia. The accession negotiations with the EU are expected to begin in 2007. And Macedonia expects to receive an invitation to join NATO in 2008.
Macedonia, which was granted the EU candidacy in December 2005, promised “Scandinavian-style elections”. However this turned out to be a hollow promise, since Macedonia is simply not Scandinavia.
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Macedonian PM Vlado Buckovski and Secretary General of the EU Council Javier Solana |
Since its independence in 1991, Macedonian elections have always been suspect. Bribery, physical or moral intimidation of individuals or even whole villages and occasional incidents are the most common features of elections in Macedonia. Proxy voting is another and perhaps more serious problem. Especially in Albanian and Roma villages, the votes of women are cast by men. According to experts these electoral offences affect 2 to 4 percent of the electoral body, say 35.000 to 60.000 voters and more.
Because of the unrest, the focus of the election campaign was shifted away from the serious political and economic problems of Macedonia and the solutions that the political parties propose in their party platforms. Perhaps this was one of the saddest sides of the pre-election period.
The active population in Macedonia during the first three months of 2006 numbered 877.798 people. 318.096 of them (36.2 percent) are unemployed. However, almost every party avoided key economic issues relating to industrial growth and living standards in their campaigning. Instead, they spent their time on the media and on the campaign trail either explaining or denying accusations of violence by their supporters. Note that neither Ali Ahmeti nor Arben Xhaferi publicly condemned the violent incidents caused mainly by their own activists.
What happened in the first ten days of the pre-election campaign and what may still happen on elections day tomorrow raise fears that these elections be widely judged as “tainted” by the international community.
Intense observation
There will be a massive deployment of domestic and international observers in order to monitor these general elections in Macedonia. The Needs Assessment Mission (NAM) undertook by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), together with the Macedonian civic association MOST envisage to deploy over 3500 observers on elections day. These observers will scrutinise the actual voting in almost 3000 polling stations. Moreover, as early as 31st May OSCE launched an Election Observation Mission, which included 13 international election experts and 18 long-term observers. They have been following the pre-election campaign, candidate registration and media coverage, as well as the processing of appeals and complaints. Some 250 short-term observers are to be deployed by OSCE member states. In total, more than 6000 local and over 300 international monitors will follow the general elections tomorrow.
Related items:
Macedonia: General Elections as Ultimate Test of “Europeanity” (27.06.06)
Macedonia: Pre-Election Campaign is about to Begin (10.06.06)
Macedonia-Kosovo-Serbia Axis: A Hidden Crisis (23.05.06)
Euro-Atlantic Axis in the Balkans: Macedonia-Kosovo-Albania (02.05.06)
A Long Voyage: Macedonia Sets Sail for Europe (05.02.06)
Main Page | News Page | 007 News | Print
|
