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The Civic Democratic Party has won the parliamentary elections in Czech Republic last weekend. Today the leader of the party is going to start negotiations on the formation of the next cabinet of ministers. However he would hardly manage to cope with his task, and consequently, a political crisis in the Czech Republic seems to be inevitable...
The lower chamber of the Czech parliament is the basic legislative body of the country. It has 200 seats in total. To enter the lower chamber it is necessary to overcome a five-percentage barrier. The party receiving the majority of mandates, forms the cabinet.
The pre-election campaign ended on June, 1. The main contenders were the Czech Social-Democratic Party and the Civic Democratic Party. According to the preliminary polls, both of them had almost equal odds of a victory. Therefore the pre-election campaign became the most scandalous for all the history of the postcomunist Czech Republic.
The elections took place on June, 2-3. 64.5 % have taken part in voting from 8 million voters. It is by 6 % more than in the previous elections of the lower chamber in 2002. The rather high activity of voters might be explained by the intense character of the pre-election campaign. Five parties entered the lower chamber on the results of the voting.
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The Civic Democratic Party (CDP) has got 35 % of votes.
The party exists since 1991. Between 1992 and 1998 it has been the ruling party in the country. On the results of elections in 1998 and 2002 the CDP made the second faction on number in the lower chamber of the parliament (accordingly 63 and 58 mandates).
The founder and the ideological leader of the CDP is economist Vaclav Klaus. He is considered the most popular Czech politician. In 1992-1998 Klaus was the head of the government. Since 2003 he holds the post of the president. The current chairman of the CDP is Mirek Topolanek.
Citizens of large cities of Czechia, in particular representatives of the middle class and business circles are considered as basic electorate of the CDP. On results of the taken place elections, the CDP has won the first place in the capital city, having got 50 % of voices. The party also has become the leader on a level of support among the younger part of the population, for the CDP have voted 42 % of the young voters.
The Czech Social-Democratic Party (CSDP) has got 32 % of voices.
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The left-centrist party is considered the oldest in Czechia and leads its history since 1878. During the interwar period of the XX century it was one of the largest political forces in the country. After an establishment of the communistic regime (1948) it became a part of the ruling Communist Party of Czechoslovakia. In 1989 CSDP has renewed its activity as an independent party. On the results of elections in 1998 and 2002 it made the largest faction in the lower chamber (accordingly 74 and 70 mandates). During its rule the CSDP has achieved significant success in the development of economy, and also the accession of the country to the European Union (2004).
The chairman of the party is Jirzi Paroubek, who has been holding this post and the post of the prime minister after the resignation of his predecessor Stanislav Gross in 2005 as a result of a corruption scandal.
Workers of the industrial enterprises and civil servants are considered as the basic electorate of the CSDP. On the results of the taken place elections, the party has won the first place in Moravia and Ostrava areas (the eastern edge of the country, the centre of the Czech coal industry). In the capital city of Prague it has taken the second place after the CDP, having received 23 % of the votes.
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The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (CPBM) has got 13 % of the votes. This party is the heiress of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia that has arisen in 1921 on the basis of the left-radical wing of the CSDP, and was at power between 1948 and 1989. The leaders of the CPBM refuse to recognize the crimes of the communist regime and continue to use traditional 4 communistic phraseology. Since 1990 the party plays a role of "the third force” in Czech politics. On the results of elections in 1998 and 2002 it made the third on number faction in the lower chamber (accordingly 24 and 41 mandate).
Since 2005 the chairman of the CPBM is the representative of "the young generation” in the party leadership, the lawyer Vojtech Filip.
The basic electorate of the party is formed with the weakest layers of the population, first of all, representatives of the senior generation.
Christian democrats (the full name: Christian and Democratic Union - Czechoslovak People’s Party) has got 7 %
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Logo of the Christian Democrats |
of the votes. This conservative, centre-right party leads its history from the moment of the creation of the Czechoslovak People’s Party (CPP) in 1918. Between 1948 and 1989 it was a part of the National Front, under control of the communist regime. At the end of 1989 there was a change of leadership of the CPP and in 1992 it has united with the new party, the Christian Democrat Union (CDU). Till the summer of 1998 the CPP-CDU block was a part 5 of the ruling coalition. On the results of elections in 1998 it has made the fourth faction on size in the lower chamber (accordingly 20 and 21 mandate). Up to 2002 the CPP-CDU was in opposition, then it joined the government, having received three ministerial portfolios, in particular that of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Since 2003 the chairman of the CPP-CDU block is Miroslav Kalousek. The basic electorate of the party is formed with the most conservative and religious part of the population in the provincial regions of the country, first of all in Moravia.
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The “Greens” Party has got 6 % of the votes. For the first time it has passed into the parliament, and this is considered the main "surprise" of the taken place elections. Their image of "a new force”, capable to make an alternative to the parties traditionally represented in the parliament makes the principal cause 6 of the “Greens” success.
On the previous elections in 2002 about 3 % of voters voted for the “Greens”. The sharp growth of its popularity has occured within the last year. During this period it has managed to get the support of the part of the traditional electorate of the CSDP.
In February, 2006 on results of opinion polls it became clear that the "Greens" had a real chance to get into the parliament. They are especially popular with the youth. In taken place elections 17 % of the young voters have given their vote sfor the “Greens”. Martin Bursik is the chairman of the party since 2005. The success of the "Greens" in the taken place elections in many respects is the result of the party’s efforts to consolidate various forces in the ranks of the party.
Deadlock of the Czech democracy
On June, 5 Mirek Topolanek, the leader of the Civic Democratic Party, should start the formation of the new cabinet. Representatives of the Christian democrats and the "Greens" have already declared their readiness to enter a coalition with the CDP. At the same time, the heads of the three parties, just on the elections eve, had rejected an opportunity of partnership with the Communists in
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Mirek Topolanek |
the structure of the next government. In his turn, Jirzi Paroubek, the leader of the losing Social Democrats already has called his confreres to make the core of the future opposition.
So, the key players of the Czech politics have found themselves in a stalemate. Both of the blocks arisen on the results of the elections, the Civic Democratic Party, the Christian Democrats and the "Greens" on the one hand, the Social Democrats and the Communists on the another, have equal number of mandates. The CDP and its potential coalition partners are needing exactly one voice in the parliament, to provide a vote of confidence for the new government.
In the given situation the “Greens” is the party that might change the balance of forces in favour of the left camp. Up to the elections its representatives have been putting forward basically ecological and social slogans, but till now they have not defined their political position. However, Martin Bursik, the leader of the party, is a convinced opponent of any partnership with the Communists. This almost deprives them of a chance to join the coalition, but also excludes a possibility of transition of the "Greens" to the side of the left camp.
Having appeared once again behind the frameworks of the coalition negotiations, those were the Communists who have put forward a compromise variant to find a solution out of the political crisis about to happen. Their offer is reduced to creation of the government of national unity, with the participation of all political parties that have entered into the lower chamber of the parliament (for the period of one year till the new early election). Such a scenario would allow the Communists to finally return to power for the first time since 1989, and place themselves in a role of deliverers of the state from a political crisis. However their initiative apparently will be rejected by other parties. In that case, the Czech Republic, most likely, would not avoid a serious political crisis.
Related items:
Czech Republic in Wait for Communist Triumph (01.06.2006)
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