Russian version
 |
|
| On the eve of Czech elections |
|
The astonishing success of the Czech Communists in the last parliamentary election in 2002 makes us on the new election eve to reflect on their display of popularity: was it just a showing of protest of the disillusioned citizens, witnessing of the validity of their cultural and historic argumentation or equalization of the Communist ideology to religion? Has the party changed in the last sixteen years? Inquisitiveness about the only former ruling party in post-communist Eastern Europe not to drop the communist title from its name has nothing in common with an idle curiosity. The question is whether this time the Communists will do even better than four years ago.
A year ago Miroslav Grebenicek, the then Czech Communist leader, was riding high on the May Day, with an opinion poll suggesting that if elections were held the next day his party would get 25 per cent of the vote, the highest figure since 1989. This May a poll by STEM showed 13 per cent of respondents would vote for the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (the official title of the party; Czech: Komunistická strana ech a Moravy – KSCM) in June 2-3 legislative ballot. However, the fact that the Communist potentialities are not to be underestimated was once again acknowledged two years ago, in June 2004, when the party came in second place in the European Parliament elections in the Czech Republic, winning 6 of 24 seats. One observing the developments in this country may notice the point underlined by Jirzi Pehe, a political analyst and the former presidential advisor, that there is a certain relationship as far as preferences go between the left-of-centre Social Democratic Party (CSSD) and the Communist Party, and when the CSSD is not doing very well the preferences of the KSCM go up.
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Prime Minister Jirzi Paroubek (L) and Miroslav Grebenicek |
In 2000 Grebenicek declared that in ten years the KSCM would be in the government, and in 2003 his deputy Jirzi Dolejs conceded this to be possible already the same year in case the Social Democrats would come out in favor of the unity of the left. However for the majority of the CSSD the Communist Party is perceived as never having severed ties with a criminal past, and never having apologized for show-trials and executions of the 1950’s, and countless other crimes. The leaders of the Social Democrats headed by Vladimir Spidla strongly rejected appeals of some party members to cancel the so-called Bohumin decisions (after a city on the Polish border) that in 1995 prohibited the CSSD to cooperate with the KSCM.
In recent days now, members of parliament from both the KSCM and the CSSD combined in the parliament to push through a number of key laws, including the new labor code. But, Prime Minister Jirzi Paroubek, the head of the CSSD, has repeatedly ruled out forming a future coalition counting the Communists as members.
The New and the Same Simultaneously
There were many people who after the 1989 “Velvet revolution” forecasted a near end of the Communists. But nobody awaited a rapid collapse of the party. According to CTK, in autumn 1998 there were 140,000 KSCM members; in June 2000 – 120,000; in February 2003 – 107,813. The Czech Communists even did not distance from the former Czechoslovak Communist Party. Neither the former president Vaclav Havel expected the upheaval of the Communists, gaining 18.5 per cent of votes in the parliamentary elections in June, 2002. Havel boycotted the Communists and did not speak to them, but their isolation managed to hold out only a few years. They became of great value in the parliament serving as a covert ally of all the other political parties.
The major turn came in the period of the opposition agreement when the KSCM assisted of necessity either the minority government of the CSSD or, the other way, to the right-wing liberal-conservative Civic Democratic Party (ODS). After the 2002 elections, the Social Democrats finally gave thought to its cooperation with the strong KSCM in the government. During the presidential elections in 2003 almost all the candidates appealed for the Communist vote, and thanks to the KSCM, it was Vaclav Klaus who after all became the winner.
Then this was a question of the day whether the Communists would become the strongest left party in
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Vaclav Exner: the last sentry |
Czech Republic. Following the presidential elections they felt themselves necessary and very strong and gave a message to the CSSD that they would take over the leading role in the left wing of the political spectrum. The Social Democrats, the main obstacle on the Communists’ way, felt themselves emasculated also by the other rival – the Greens, particularly popular among the youth. The then Chairman of the CSSD Vladimir Spidla even established a ecological platform Platan within the party to not to tolerate the outflow of the young voters. Grebenicek, the KSCM leader, had taken the liberty to declare the Social Democrats as a party “he can’t perceive seriously” and accused the CSSD of harming and disgracing the left forces. CSSD got irritated by such rhetoric that showed it was the struggle for power, not for the implementation of the party program that the Communists had been following. At the same time, the support to the Communist ideas in the country has been much lower than the track record of the KSCM.
As a political party that symbolizes the former regime, KSCM has attracted those whose living conditions had worsened since 1989. All that time the Communists have maintained they have changed. Simultaneously the party leaders and ideologists have exploited the theme of the “old good times”, following its, in fact, rather limited political strategy, demonstrating that they are the same even with the more friendly countenance due to tactical reasons. In difference from Slovakia, Poland or Hungary, the Czech Communists did not transform into a party that accepted the democratic rules of the struggle for power and like the Communists in the former GDR they defined themselves as a nostalgic, real socialist alternative to the new regime. Abiding of the Communists in the same old ideological swamp was eloquently proved particularly by the vocabulary of Grebenicek and other higher party functionaries (Stanislav Balin, Vaclav Exner, etc.).
Leader as a Burden
It was in 2004 when the first serious indications appeared that the party would have to reform itself, like it or not, if it wanted to play a mainstream role in Czech politics. Grebenicek, the party leader since 1993, and his people represented the old guard in the KSCM and a reform wing was represented by Miloslav Ransdorf, Dolejs and some others. Although Grebenicek and his confreres had the edge on the reformers at the party congress two years ago, that was not the end of the inside contradictions. Grebenicek openly talked to the media on his deputies Vlastimila Balínova, Zuzce Rujbrova, Dolejs and Ransdorf as a grouping that makes his life difficult. As Jaromir Kohlicek, a Communist European parliament member, put it, “during the last two or three years someone somehow spoiled the image of the party, which would like to accept new realities, and would like to shift the interests of society to social affairs." Even without mentioning him by name it was clear that Grebenicek had become something of a burden for his own party.
Last October, nine months ahead of parliamentary elections and after twelve years in his post, Miroslav Grebenicek stepped down, apparently in order to help his party to attract new support. He was replaced by the 50-year-old lawyer and Vice President of the Chamber of Representatives Vojtech Filip, who was elected by 63 votes versus 20 for his rival Vaclav Exner. But the change seemed only cosmetic as the party until now has
| |
|
 |
|
| Voitech Filip |
|
never fully distanced itself from the Communist Party of the old regime and its new leader saying there would be no shift in the party's stance. Filip’s interview to the daily Pravo shortly before his advancement has proved his ideological equivalence with Grebenicek. Filip called the North Atlantic alliance a Cold War remnant and said the Czech Republic became an aggressor for the first time in history after it entered
NATO. He added the KSCM had already apologised for its past, with which it has come to terms. Filip denied that Klement Gottwald, the Communist leader in the early 1950’s, and other senior communists at the time, were criminals. He also denied that Czechoslovakia as a former member of Warsaw Pact had committed any act of aggression against Hungary or East Germany or that Czechoslovakia was an object of aggression in 1968.
Even with such an outlook Filip is considered to be more communicative than Grebenicek who, according to political analyst Rudolf Kucera, “was very Stalinist”. While Filip shares many of the views of his predecessor, he is used to communicating between parties in the parliament, all of which could make him more approachable, analyst says. Anyway, as long as the Communists enjoy relatively high support as the third strongest party in the Czech parliament, there will never be real incentive for change.
The fact that the new KSCM chairman could open more doors that for Grebenicek remained closed, namely closer cooperation with the CSSD, has turned out as true, for instance, in the mentioned above joint efforts in the parliament to push through a number of key laws. The Czech Social Democrats have recovered with the help of their new face -- Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek. By changing their own leader, the Communists were hoping to do the same.
Tight Race, Mixed Messages
The 200-member strong lower house of the Parliament is the true centre of legislative power in the Czech Republic, much stronger than the Senate, and effectively also defines the executive power. This is the country's first election since joining the European Union in 2004. The economy powered ahead by 6 per cent last year on the back of strong foreign direct investment, boosting budget revenues and restraining the fiscal deficit. In February the KSCM outlined areas it considered key in its campaign program. The party's program comprises eight priorities including maintaining economic growth at a minimum 5 per cent, workers' security and the upkeep of the Welfare State. The Communists are also promising to increase salaries by 40 per cent by 2010 and increase expenditure in research and development. The party has also promised to build 50,000 new apartments per year and would also like to focus on the health sector, employment, as well as education; meanwhile, it remains highly critical of the Czech Republic's membership in the European Union, and has called for the country's withdrawal from NATO. The KSCM is also strictly opposed to any US facilities being installed in the Czech Republic, which they call the "largest possible security risk."
With the electoral system that is based on proportional representation, the Czech Republic is destined to have a coalition government following the forthcoming elections. Five parties are projected to win seats in the lower house of parliament but none is seen gaining a majority and any winner will need at least one partner to form a cabinet. The KSCM has, in fact, offered its support to the CSSD for the formation of a future government. Because of this Grebenicek accused Filip of drawing too close to the Social Democrats. In his turn, Filip has been trying to reassure the electorate by maintaining that a victory of the KSCM in the elections would not lead to a bloody class war or to the renationalization of privatized companies.
Prime Minister and the CSSD leader Paroubek said in the interview to the daily Hospodarske noviny (HN) this week that he would not be ready to form a government with Communists, but he indicated that after the next elections in 2010 this might be possible; it is interesting that he duplicates Grebenicek’s forecast made in 2000.
Last weekend’s survey by the Factum Invenio polling agency showed the ruling CSSD had 28.5 per cent support, 0.7 percentage points ahead of the ODS who led the previous polls.
Another poll for the daily Mlada Fronta Dnes showed the ODS with 30.8 percent and the CSSD 24.2 percent. Anyway, the election winner would be either the Social Democrats or the Civic Democrats and the Communists may again be the third. So far the CSSD leaned to believe that after the election the first of three alternative scenarios would come into effect -- a coalition of the Civic Democratic Party, the Christian Democrats, and the Greens (with the latter either directly participating in the government or at least tacitly supporting it). For that reason in his statement for the daily Paroubek indicated that he wanted to "educate" Communists as a future coalition partner and said he could imagine a minority Social Democrat government with the support of Communists. However their coexistence in such a government already now could not be easier than the grand coalition partnership between the CSSD and the ODS that have been actively exchanging mutual accusations in the last days before the final voting.
Related items:
Russia to Pay for Hungary's Reforms (10.05.2006)
Hungarian Elections: Russians Happy, Poles Feel Hurt (09.04.2006)
Slovak Backland of Polish Attack on Putin's Positions (07.03.2006)
The Czech Card of Russian-Polish Confrontation (04.03.2006)
The Visegrad Group: Alliance Against Russia and Germany (21.02.2006)
Fico: Slovakia Is Not State 51 of America (31.05.2005)
Main Page | News Page | 007 News | Print
|
