This week, Europe welcomes two new independent states: Montenegro and Serbia. This marked the end of the great Yugoslavia project. Repercussions of Montenegro’s independence seem to last for a while. Serbia discusses the restoration of monarchy. Many breakaway regions, not only those in the Balkans, openly envy Montenegro. Will these “side effects” of Sunday’s referendum put the regional stability in danger…
Hail to the new Serbian monarchy
On 21st May the EU was in fact very lucky that the official results of the referendum in Montenegro put the pro-independence votes at 55.5 percent - just half a percentage point above the threshold for victory. The EU gambled in a very dangerous way, imposing the 55-percent threshold. And although it won, it does not mean that 55:45 model must be a precedent for other crucial referenda to come.
With the secession of Montenegro, the good-thought yet bad-applied Yugoslavia idea is definitely dead and buried. Yugoslavia consisted of six republics: Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Slovenia. Now all these former republics are independent.
On the night of 21st May, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic “congratulated Montenegrin
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Milo Djukanovic |
citizens on their state”, and added that “the long wait for independence from Serbia since they were conjoined in 1918 had finally come to an end”. This picture of Montenegrin martyrdom represents half of the historic truth though. For the large part of its history, Montenegro chose to stay with Serbia, just as now it chose to secede from Serbia.
Today both Montenegro and Serbia are alone. They cannot blame each other any more for their inner problems. Djukanovic always accused Serbia of holding Montenegro back from a rapid European integration. Probably the fact that early of May Serbia was sanctioned by the EU over its failure to extradite Ratko Mladic had an impact on the Montenegrin voters last Sunday, confirming Djukanovic’s statements. Balsa Brkovic, a leading Montenegrin writer pointed out: “This government has profited for years from the unresolved question of statehood”. Now the Montenegrin government must justify that Serbia was indeed the “bad guy” of their history.
And Serbia obtained its independence, which it had never asked for. For a relatively long time, neither President nor Prime Minister reacted to the result of Sunday’s referendum. Yet, the Serbian headlines spoke for themselves: “Breakaway”, “It’s over”, etc. On 23rd May, President Boris Tadic officially recognised Montenegro’s independence. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica still waits for the confirmation of the result. His is a legally correct but diplomatically bad-intentioned reaction. The “moderate nationalist” Premier of Serbia had never hidden that he would not wish Montenegro to secede. He largely assisted and mentored the Montenegrin pro-union campaign. That is why now he must feel himself defeated too. Kostunica should not have taken sides in this referendum in the first place. For he openly backed the losing side, he is now part of the losing side. Thus he marked a bad point for his government. Braca Grubacic, a Serbian political analyst pointed out with right: “This is a blow, both politically and psychologically for Kostunica”.
Serbia is finally all alone. Dusan Petrovic, a spokesman from President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party stated that it was time for “Serbia to focus on Serbia”: “We became independent through a vote in Montenegro. Now we must clean up our own house”. It is time now for Serbia to face its past and its errors.
Some analysts hailed the Montenegrin independence as the final blow to the “Greater Serbia” idea.
| |
|
 |
|
| Crown Prince Aleksandar |
|
It is true that thousands of people perished for this gloomy idea under Slobodan Milosevic and even before. Yet, it must not be forgotten that it was the EU, which forced the two rump republics of former Yugoslavia into the “state union of Serbia and Montenegro” in 2003. At that time Montenegro wanted to secede. The EU prevented this secession, fearing that it would hinder the process of finding a solution for the Kosovo final status. According to the Constitution, a referendum on independence was to be held only after a three year wait. Obviously the EU thought that the Kosovo question would be solved within three years. Yet, this wishful thinking did not materialise. The strange 55:45 model was probably imposed because this time Montenegro’s constitutional right for holding a referendum on independence was undeniable.
Crown prince Aleksandar urges Serbia to restore the monarchy. Prince Aleksandar is the heir of the famous Karadjordjevic dynasty, which ruled the Serbian kingdom alternately with the rival Obrenovic dynasty. Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic supports the idea: “A constitutional parliamentary monarchy would be a sound foundation for Serbia to build on”. According to the opinion polls, about one-third of the public supports the restoration of the monarchy. The rest stated that they would not object if it brought stability. The Western-educated and democrat Crown prince is a very popular figure amongst ordinary Serbs. Prince Aleksandar stated that “a Kingdom of Serbia will provide the fastest way forward to the European Union, it will encourage work on attracting investments, stimulating economic growth”. It is, however, not clear why the monarchy will be the key for the political and economic problems of Serbia, which the republic could not solve so far.
Side effects of Montenegro’s independence
Montenegro’s independence seems to have some undesirable side effects.
Oliver Ivanovic, the moderate Kosovo Serb leader, predicted that the referendum “will have psychological effect. Its results will give a boost to Kosovo Albanians and their efforts to achieve Kosovo's independence”.
As a matter of fact, Dukagjin Gorani, an Albanian analyst claimed, “the concept of keeping Kosovo in Serbia is untenable. Montenegro's independence creates a precedent that is undeniable, and Kosovo's independence is now inevitable”.
Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu and Prime Minister Agim Ceku denied any immediate link between the independence of Montenegro and that of Kosovo. Although the independence of the neighbour created an undeniable enthusiasm amongst the Kosovo Albanians, Kosovo actually does not need “boosts” of any kind, since its independence is now more or less decided.
Albanians in the Presevo Valley (southern Serbia) uttered their wish to hold a similar referendum, which would ask to the Albanian majority in the region which one they prefer to live with: Serbia or Kosovo. Early this year, Albanians of southern Serbia stated that they would want to unite with Kosovo if the latter is divided between the Serbs and the Albanians at the end of the negotiations.
Bosnian Serbs have already stated that Montenegro's independence was a good model to be followed by their entity of Republika Srpska.
Montenegro’s independence has excited a lot of interest not only in the Balkans, but also in other parts of Europe and beyond: Catalonia and Basque region in Spain, the Germanic Tyrol region of Italy, Transdnestria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Upper Karabakh in Azerbaijan and Turkish northern Cyprus. Ankara is prepared to hold a referendum in northern Cyprus if UN Secretary General Kofi Annan does not “take any initiative” after Greek Cypriot leader Tasos Papadopoulos won the elections in the island. In the referendum, Turkish Cypriots will be asked whether they want to unite with the southern part of the island.
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, himself a Spanish socialist, clearly declared: “This is not a precedent for anyone, it is just for the situation in the Balkans. Anyone who compares Catalonia and the Basque country with
| |
|
| |
 |
| |
Vojislav Kostunica |
Montenegro is suffering from delirium tremens”.
Javier Solana is basically right. There is no connection between the status of Montenegro and that of other above mentioned regions. The right for secession was a constitutional right for Montenegro. Montenegro had always been a republic, first within former Yugoslavia, then in the state union of Serbia-Montenegro. Moreover, historic backgrounds of other regions are completely different.
However, it is true that Montenegro’s independence has a strong -maybe illogical but- psychological effect on these regions’ inhabitants, who probably think that now it is their turn.
Serbia reluctantly hails its own independence. Once again, the Serbian people experiences the unpleasing feeling of being the “unwanted ones”. Yet, Montenegro’s independence was a reality that they must have prepared themselves for years.
By the end of this year, Serbia will probably lose Kosovo. In the eyes of ordinary Serbs, Vojislav Kostunica will be the head of the government, which lost Montenegro and Kosovo within a year. Serbian ultra-nationalists, which have the support of no less than 38 percent of the Serbian people behind them, would not fail to exploit this situation to the extreme - although their own mentality was the sole responsible, which created this desperate no-way-back situation in the first place.
Related items:
Montenegro Referendum - Full Details (21.05.06)
Montenegro Referendum Haunted by “Grey Zone” Scenarios (11.05.06)
Montenegro’s Independence Depends on European Mathematics (19.04.06)
Serbia and Montenegro: Unhappy couple on the way of divorce? (16.01.06)
Main Page | News Page | 007 News | Print
|
