Russian version
Contrary to neighboring Poland, where the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party managed to combine in its platform the religious-patriotic motives with promises to support socially weak layers of population and agricultural sector, the accent that the Hungarian Civic Union put on religious-patriotic motives in its pre-election campaign did not have any success.
Ex-communists' triumph
In October 2006, Hungary will commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the Soviet military invasion that cost lives of two thousand Hungarians. After the fall of the communist rule in this country, in 1989, it seemed that the memory of those horrible events in the
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The MSZP's flag |
1950s would forever exclude a possibility that those who had any connection with Hungarian communists, those who were called Hungarian Socialist Worker's Party (MSZMP), ever come into power again. However, the reality was different. Already in May 1994, the parliamentary elections in Hungary were won by the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), openly calling itself the MSZMP's successor. At that moment everybody in Hungary knew that the former party functionaries still had considerable influence on its elite. Loosing the 1998 elections, the
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| Ferenc Gyurcsány |
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ex-communists regained power in 2002. But that was not the last of their triumphs. At the end of April 2006, i.e. – the same year when Hungary is going to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the communist counterrevolution, MSZP repeats its electoral success. For the first time in the post-communist Hungary's seventeen-year history this party holds power for the second term.
Results of the recent parliamentary elections that finished on April 23, 2006, were a real triumph for the socialists and their young leader, the millionaire Ferenc Gyurcsány. The party, which surpassed a severe crisis only two years ago, obtained 190 mandates in the second round of the elections (48.19% of places in the parliament of 386 members). Main support to it came from the citizens of Budapest and country's eastern areas.
To have an absolute majority the socialists needed 194 mandates – only four mandates separating them from a possibility to rule the country solely. To remind, in 1994 they already had a majority in the Parliament, when the MSZP got 209 mandated. Today, however, it will have to make up a coalition with its former coalition partner, the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ). If talks with the liberals, who obtained 20 mandates (4.66%), go well (and nobody in Hungary doubts they will!), the MSZP-SZDSZ bloc will have 210 mandates, i.e. 52.85% of the total mandates' number. To compare, in the former parliament this social-liberal bloc had 198 mandates. For sure, with such correlation of forces, the ruling coalition won't have any serious trouble to pass the large-scale reforms as was promised to its voters.
A split in the opposition ranks
At the same time, the rightist-conservative opposition largely lost its ability to efficiently oppose the socialists' policy. Parliamentary elections' results appeared to be really chocking for the main opposition party, the rightist-conservative Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz). While the MSZP got 190 mandates in
the second round, the conservatives were left with only 164 mandates (42.49% of places in the parliament). Compared to the socialists' young leader Ferenc Gyurcsány, conservatives' rather young leader Viktor Orban and his entourage, which has not undergone almost any personal shifts for the last fifteen years, are viewed as "old bones" by the voters. Contrary to neighboring Poland, where the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party managed to combine in its platform the religious-patriotic motives with promises to support socially weak layers of population and agricultural sector, the accent that Fidesz put on religious-patriotic motives in its pre-election campaign did not have any success. The local conservatives put forward the slogan calling for unity with a multi-million Hungarian Diaspora, as well as a number of purely populist economic and social promises.
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Viktor Orban |
This address to the public did not have the expected effect. And it does not concern only the loss of places in the parliament: 164 mandates in these elections versus 169 in 2002 is not a big loss. Much more destructive for Fidesz is the general weakening of its status as the consolidating center of opposition. Contrary to the leftist camp, which managed to rally its ranks during the pre-election campaign, Hungarian Civic Union put much effort to weaken its former strategic partner – the Christian-democratic Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF). As a result, the MDF got only 11 mandates in the last elections (2.85%). That is why many of its leaders already declared their unwillingness to cooperate with Fidesz in the opposition framework. In such a situation Viktor Orban admitted his responsibility for the defeat in the elections, and declared his intention to resign from the post of Fidesz's leader.
Moscow to pay for "strategic reforms"?
As was stated by the socialist leader Ferenc Gyurcsány, the new government will be formed not earlier than the end of May – beginning of June. Straight after announcement of the elections' results Gyurcsánysaid that the personalities of his Cabinet future members are not as important, as the content of a large-scale reform that they are entitled to realize. This program, as promised by Gyurcsány, will be the most revolutionist one since the fall of the communist regime. It will concern Hungary's economy, its judicial system, and social welfare. Besides that, the MSZP leader promised his countrymen to reduce the long-lasted budgetary deficit (6.1% of GDP), which is supposed to prepare Hungarian economy for the Euro-zone accession in 2010.
Meanwhile, the leadership of the Alliance of Free Democrats – socialists' potential main coalition partner – already announced its view of the future reforms. As a starting point of the coalition talks, liberals demand a fundamental reform in the sphere of medical services, as well as privatization of medical assurance's sphere, preservation of the current fiscal level, continuation of the educational reform that was started by the previous government, and change of the administrative-territorial management system by merging different areas of the country (there are 110 of them). It is known, that at the present stage of coalition talks the socialists oppose these paragraphs of the liberal reform. For example, they stand for a tax deduction. The problem is that such deduction, together with socialists' refusal to reform medical, educational, and administrative-regional management systems, can lead to further growth of the budgetary deficit.
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| Vladimir Putin and Ferenc Gyurcsány |
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In such a situation the country would need additional sources of benefit.
Such source – a large-scaled one and guaranteeing a rapid income to Hungarian treasury – can be obtained from realization of a multi-billion package of proposals for economic partnership, presented by the Russian President Vladimir Putin during his official visit to Budapest in February 2006. This package includes establishment in Hungary of the European center for diffusion of the Russian gas, creation of a transit point for goods coming from Asia via the trans-Siberian route, sell of the local energy infrastructure's actives to the Russian energy giants, and augmentation of Hungarian agricultural export to Russia. Thereby, decisions on broadening the strategic partnership with Moscow must be taken by Gyurcsány's upcoming social-liberal government as soon as possible. In autumn 2006, another important event awaits the Hungarian political system – the local elections. Socialists and their allies from liberal camp, taking advantage at the state level, do not intend to give way to opposition at the level of big cities' municipalities.
Read in the next article on this topic: analysis of Hungarian social-liberal leadership's foreign policy
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