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| Islam Karimov and Manmohan Singh |
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In April cooperation between India and Russia as previously was also developing in many directions, from nuclear to military and gas-oil sphere. And Moscow has opened a new path for New Delhi, a pass to Central Asia, bringing India closer to its alliance with China.
But first of all it must be marked that these relations between Russia and India, already developing very promptly, received yet another boost. The three day visit of the Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov on March 16 to New Delhi, which, unfortunately, due to the technical reasons, the AIA was unable to cover, was certainly a landmark in the relations between the two countries. Though Fradkov came to India after the visit of the US President George W Bush, and his visit is considered of much lower level than that of the American leader, still the results seem even more significant. The agenda of Fradkov's visit sounded much more trivial (just an "enhancing of economic cooperation") than that of the Bush's visit, during which the historic Indo-US civil nuclear deal was finalized. However it set off several goals for bilateral partnership (Moscow would like to see bilateral trade with New Delhi increase to between eight and ten billion dollars by 2011), which seem heavier than any nuclear deal.
And talking about the nuclear issue, Fradkov's visit triggered Moscow's decision to supply 60 tons of uranium-enriched nuclear fuel to unit I and Unit II of the Tarapur Atomic Power station, inspite of strong objections from Washington.
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Fradkov and Singh |
To remind, the Tarapur plants were built by US firm General Electric in the 1960s but Washington stopped fuel supplies after New Delhi conducted its first nuclear tests in 1974 under Indira Gandhi when Cold War between the two blocks was at prime. The two units, I and II of TAPs received erratic fuel supply from Russia and France that witnessed US administrations consistent objection.
At the beginning of April the Head of the Russian Federal Agency for Atomic Energy, Sergey Kiriyenko announced in New Delhi that a joint Indo-Russian committee will be formed to work out proposals for completing the Kudankulam nuclear power plant as soon as possible. Addressing a press meet along with Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar, Kiriyenko said the committee would submit its proposals by middle of May. "We will ensure the commissioning of Unit-I and II with a capacity of 1000 mw each without compromising on quality and security", he said adding, "security and priority are our first priority". Kiriyenko, who evaluated the progress of construction work of the plant, said India and Russia have a "longstanding strategic partnership in nuclear power". The Russian team also discussed the prospects of future cooperation of strategic partnership. Kakodkar said the Russian team's visit allowed both India and Russia to take stock of the project to ensure smooth progress of the plant's completion.
And there is an important note must be made. The Russian activization in the nuclear sphere is tightly connected to the Indo-US nuclear deal and to the… military sphere! As an influential Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta claimed the deal is linked to the acquisition of 126 American F-16/F-18 fighter jets for the Indian Air Force in Washington's bid to squeeze Moscow out of the Indian arms market.
The United States and India exchanged "letters of intent" concerning American companies' participation in the race for selling New Delhi 126 medium/light fighters. The daily wrote that Russia faces the danger of losing India as one of its largest arms markets worth $1.5-1.8 billion annually.
India has to make up its mind on acquisition of 126 fighters by the end of the year for the IAF. Russia has already offered to sell India its MiG-29s, France offered its MIRAGE and Sweden its Grippens.
As it is known, military cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi (which is mainly based on "trader-customer" relations) is one of the basic bonding elements, tying India to Russia. Losing part of it will strip Russia not only of a tool of control but also harm its military industry, as the planes deal may bring close to $9 billion (including maintenance costs).
At the end of April the Russians acquired information on the Indian Air Force's intention to retire MiG-25 spy planes quarter century-long service and pass to the satellites (INSAT 2B). However it was of little harm to Moscow, as the Russians no longer manufacture this aircraft and were reported to have even done away with technical literature and drawings. Nor were spares available. The IAF had developed indigenous methods for their upkeep, but these aircraft still had to go to Russia for major overhaul. The satellites sphere is much more profitable, and India and Russia already signed two agreements on jointly launching and developing satellites for the space-based ex-Soviet Global Navigation Satellite System (Glonass), which was stated in the Indo-Russian accord signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin's India visit in December 2004.
But all this is just a small change. The main April's news-item in the Indo-Russian relations was Moscow's granting New Delhi's access to Central Asia both in military and economical sphere. For a long time New Delhi claimed being blocked by Islamabad on this direction. "Pakistan's denial of transit to Indian goods through its territory is the chief hurdle in India's bid to raise its economic and strategic stakes in the oil-rich Central Asia. The Indian presence in Central Asia is below expectations primarily due to transit problems through Pakistan", Rajiv Sikri, secretary in the Indian Foreign external affairs ministry said in mid April at a conference on Central and Southern Asian security.
"We have more in common with Central Asia than Russia in some ways. Our culture and outlook on life has a great deal of similarity," he said.
And so, Moscow decided to satisfy the craving of its allies from New Delhi. The Russians lobbied (or frankly to say ordered) opening of the India's first two overseas military base in its Central Asian fief - Tajikistan. For India such bases are a testament to its emerging status on the world stage. India will become the fourth power to compete for influence in Central Asia. Russia has a military base in Tajikistan and one in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The US also still has a base in Kyrgyzstan and Germany has a base at Termez, in southern Uzbekistan, both of which are used to assist operations in Afghanistan.
The Indian air force will station up to two squadrons of MiG-29 fighter-bombers at the refurbished former Soviet airbase at Aini, 15 km from the Tajikistan capital Dushanbe. The IAF also plans to station trainer aircraft at Aini.
The IAF is also helping its Tajik counterpart to retrofit its Soviet-era fighters while Indian civilian and military personnel are teaching the Tajik servicemen English. Defense planners in India said the base would provide New Delhi with a 'longer strategic reach' in Central Asia and help it secure badly needed oil contracts. The work at Aini will be completed by the Tajik National Day September 9. India's grip at Aini follows the establishment of its first military outpost in Tajikistan at Farkhor, adjoining the Tajik-Afghan border, (100 kilometers from Dushanbe) that is manned by a handful of defense "advisors" from New Delhi. The "quietly functional" Farkhor base is an extension of the field hospital India established in the late 1990s to help the Northern Alliance in its fight against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
The claims of different western analysts that India is pushing out Russia from Tajikistan are laughable. The Russians are simply creating another knot, tying India to themselves, and to the joint Sino-Russian creature – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where India has an observer status, planning to become full member.
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| Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov on SCO meeting |
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The proof that undermines any other version is the fact that Beijing hosted talks between Moscow, Dushanbe and New Delhi concerning the foundation of an Indian air base at Aini. And what a surprise, Russia's 201st motorized infantry division in Tajikistan will soon redeploy its helicopters and planes to… Aini! An interesting decision, as the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states and representatives of the SCO observer states met at the end of April in regular session in Beijing to discuss turning SCO into a military bloc. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov took the limelight during the SCO session and revealed these plans to the press. According to Ivanov, the SCO states are prepared to use force together “to fight back against new threats and challenges, especially international terrorism, in particular its large-scale acts organized with the help of IT and modern high-tech weapons”. Ivanov explained that it is necessary to use military force to protect the peace of the SCO nations. May be the Russian and the Indian Air forces are planning to train at Aini to protect them together?
Besides providing India with overseas military bases, the Russians dealt with its energy security issue, by lobbying New Delhi's economic relations with another SCO member-state. Uzbekistan, recently pushed by the West into Moscow's embrace, will become the buttress of India's economic stability. The bonhomie between Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh during the latter's two-day visit to Tashkent at the end of April was a sign of a "beginning of a beautiful friendship" between these two states at the Russia's influence orbit. During the visit of Singh to Uzbekistan, Indian state-owned gas transmission and marketing company GAIL and Uzbekneftegaz (a national gas major of that country) signed a memorandum of co-operation agreement. Under the agreement, the two companies would jointly pursue gas sector projects covering exploration and production, gas processing, production of petrochemicals as well as training and research and development. The Indian company is to set up liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) plants in Uzbekistan. The LPG plants with a capacity of 0.1 million tonnes per annum each will be set up in western parts of Uzbekistan along with Uzbekneftegaz.
As for oil, India currently needs 1.9 million barrels a day, but this is forecast to rise to four million by 2010. Russia is going to assist in this issue also, as Indian ONGC Videsh, the overseas arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), and Russia's Gazprom have decided to set up working groups to study cooperation in exploration and research activities. The decision was taken during the first joint working group meeting in Moscow at Gazprom's headquarters on April 18-19 as a follow-up to the memorandum of understanding signed in February last year between the two companies. At the meeting chaired by Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom's Management Committee, and ONGC Videsh Ltd managing director R.S. Butola the parties reiterated agreement on mutual cooperation in Russia and India as well as in the oil and gas projects in the Middle East, Asia, North Africa, South America and CIS, Russian media reported.
Summing up the April's events it must be noted that Russia is more or less covering most of the issues of greater importance for India, as the US administration is trying to stick to the one, which it considers the main – the nuclear one. And Moscow's approach seems much more effective than the Washington's…
Related items:
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review – February 2006)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review – January 2006)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - December 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - November 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - October 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - September 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - August 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - July 2005)
India in Eurasian Geopolitics (June 2005)
India in Eurasian Geopolitics (May 2005)
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