Russian version
One year after the overturn, an escalation of tension is felt again in the interior political situation in Kyrgyzstan. After coming into power the President Kurmanbek Bakiev and his confidants started instituting their control over security bodies and the most profitable spheres of economy. Doing this they proved to be unable to restrain mafia's growing influence and to improve socio-economic conditions of the population. Now, on the eve of the opposition's actions, Bakiev launched a populist PR-campaign, simultaneously trying to play the geopolitical card…
Victory of Kyrgyz democracy
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| Kurmanbek Bakiev |
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In March 2005, as a result of an overthrow, the first Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev was deposed. His place was taken by one of the opposition leaders, former Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev. Change of power in the republic was first met abroad as yet another pro-Western democratic revolution in the post-Soviet space. A considerable part of the local population, in its turn, was hoping for eradication of the clannish and corrupt state system, as well as for improvement of socio-economic situation in the country. All the more so, as Bakiev and his adherents declared these goals as their first and the most important task.
In May 2005, two months prior to the Presidential elections, the provisional Kyrgyz leader managed to neutralize his main rival, Felix Kulov. The latter abandoned the idea to run for the presidency, getting certain guarantees of his further appointment as the prime minister. Many observers then assumed that formation of such a tandem would allow avoiding further confrontation between those forces whose interests Bakiev and Kulov are thought to maintain (influential southern clans for the former, and the population of northern regions for the latter). In August 2005, provisional Head of State officially became the President, and a month later,
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Felix Kullov and Kurmanbek Bakiev |
the new government began its work. However, very soon it became clear that Bakiev's regime is unable to cardinally change the situation in the country. Moreover, since the last autumn, first signs of a growing destabilization started showing up in Kyrgyzstan.
In the very first months of his rule, the new President became occupied by "cleansing" in the main state bodies, including the security services, to get rid of the placemen of his forerunner. Bakiev's creatures were being appointed instead. In parallel, property redistribution started in the country, aimed at providing the President's confidants with control over the most profitable economy spheres. This led to a rise of social tension, which was often manifested in mass actions of protest in the regions and in the capital. This situation, already in the last summer, was used by politic opponents of the new administration, as well as by mafia bosses. Mafia groups, the number of which, according to official data, exceeds twenty in this five-million republic, became much more active.
Fight for the spheres of influence between members of the new administration, together with personnel replacements in security bodies, deprived the State of its capability to confront criminal and extremist elements. Bosses of organized crime started openly threatening the officials, eliminating the unwonted parliamentarians, and organizing mass political actions. In October 2005, they instigated a large-scale unrest in prisons. Three months later, the interethnic clashes (between the Kyrgyz and the Dungans) took place not far from the capital. According to recent data of the State Agency for Religions, during this period there was also an activation of the Islamic fundamentalists. This first of all concerns the adherents of the radical Hizb-al-Tahrir organization. While, during the previous regime, their activity was limited only to southern areas of Kyrgyzstan, in a year of Bakiev's rule they expanded their influence in the North of the republic as well.
Opposition versus mafia
Rise of general tension in the country sharpened the discrepancies between the President and the prime minister. Although their relationship was never idyllic, in January this back-stage confrontation went public. The pretext for that was the acquittal of one of the criminal bosses, Ryspek Akmatbaev, charged with execution of three murders. Bizarre as it is, the Prosecutor's office was acting to achieve his acquittal.
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| Ryspek Akmatbaev |
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After that the Prime Minister Kulov actually accused the President of connivance to the mafia. He called Bakiev's relative, the head of National Security Service (SNB) Tashtemir Aitbaev, responsible for the crime wave. Supported by the Parliament, Kulov demanded Aitbaev's resignation. The President, however, ordered the latter to stay in the office, accusing members of Parliament of a "sabotage". Open confrontation between Bakiev and Kulov showed that their tandem, which has not weakened the confrontation of regional elites, in fact deprived the prime minister of real influence in the most important state issues.
All this favored the general loss of trust in authorities among the Kyrgyz population. On March 24, the first anniversary of the overthrow, many citizens tied black ribbons to their cars and sleeves. On April 8, nongovernmental organizations held a several-thousand demonstration to protest Bakiev's policy. Many Kyrgyz were most outraged by the fact that the abovementioned criminal boss Aktambaev was registered as a candidate for membership in the Parliament, and had further on won the supplementary parliamentary elections held on April 9. In this connection, the most fierce critique of the regime was voiced by Edil Baisalov, human rights defender and politician of a pro-Western orientation, who heads the coalition of nongovernmental organizations -
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Edil Baisalov |
"For Democracy and Civil Society". According to him, "The authorities are on the bit of criminal bosses". He also said: "We refrained from carrying out rallies for a year, because we wanted to give Bakiev some time. Now we are going to organize rallies and marches, till he starts realizing the promised reforms". On April 10, the coalition headed by Baisalov, on behalf of main political parties and social organizations, called Bakiev to start fighting corruption and crime, and to dismiss the head of SNB. Two days later, the unknown persons carried out an attempt on Baisalov's life. He was hospitalized with a serious head injury. This event only pushed the opposition's activity forward. Straight after the attempt, American branch of Ar-Namys party, uniting Kulov's supporters, demanded President's resignation. In party's declaration it was noted that "otherwise, Kyrgyzstan may turn into a stage for bloody shoot-outs. And it is not impossible that Bakiev will follow after his forerunner". On April 15, the Forum of Young Politicians that met in Bishkek called the President either to fulfill his pre-election promises, or to resign. Two days later, there was a meeting of leaders of more than ten political parties and nongovernmental organizations, planning to hold a mass rally in Bishkek on April 29. Its participants are going to call country's leadership either to start realizing the reforms, or to resign. Large actions of protest are also planned for April 22 in Talass area, in the northwest of the republic.
To tell the truth, at the threshold of these actions, the authorities did not show any readiness to fulfill the demands of the opposition. But the leadership of the republic has unwrapped wide PR-campaign based on completely populist statements. The President personally took a course at granting… afternoon snacks. During March Bakiev repeatedly stated a necessity to provide promptly the schoolchildren with an after-dinner meal. Standing before the TV cameras he gave a corresponding order to the officials. Similarly, it was decided to struggle with criminals. On April 13, 2006 the government has urgently charged the Minister of Internal Affairs to find "the criminal enemy ¹ 1" and to take all measures for his neutralization. Thus vice-premier Adhan Madumarov has called to shoot gangsters on a spot, without any court session or investigation. In his opinion, the problem of criminality in the republic is caused by that "we have today more democracy, than the United States". Simultaneously, the President has suggested law enforcement bodies "to slap" 50-60 corrupted officials, so "the others will be afraid". Several days prior to that suggestion, the decree ordering the civil servant to carry out family celebrations in extremely modest conditions was issued. It is supposed, in the opinion of its authors to promote prompt eradication of corruption.
And, at last, on April 19 Kurmanbek Bakiev publicly revealed a true reason for "concern of the people of Kyrgyzstan". According to the President, the concern is caused by "the absence of clarity" in the issue of "further presence of the military and civil personnel of the US Ministry of Defense in the Kyrgyz republic".
Washington's discernment
Washington, in its relations with Kyrgyzstan became a victim of its own stereotypes and rather superficial perception of local realities. After "Velvet revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine, Americans piously believed that the change of authority in any post-Soviet republic would necessarily bring liberal - democratic transformations and change of foreign policy's orientation to pro-Western one. The statements of the President Akayev claiming that Kyrgyz opposition acts in support of the US interests backed this belief. However, in fact, thus the first President of the republic mainly aspired to acquire support of the Kremlin. But actually, the leading heads of the opposition, being natives of the republican Soviet nomenclature, have been indissolubly connected with Moscow. And they also did not deny Akayev's statements on their "pro-Western" orientation. First of all, it attracted a part of protest electorate in the republic, and secondly, it allowed receiving financial aid from various western funds and nongovernmental organizations. Realizing inevitability of change of authority in the republic, the Kremlin refused supporting pro-Russian President Akayev, and staked on Bakiev who was not less obedient. It all became obvious right after the revolution. In two weeks from the moment of coming to power the provisional head of Kyrgyzstan declared that "Russia was and remains the most close strategic partner for our republic". At the same time, the first visit abroad of the official representative of a new regime took place. The Minister of Foreign Affairs at that time, Rosa Otunbaev arrived in Moscow, where she declared: "relations with Russia remain a priority for the Kyrgyz foreign policy". This very day, on April 13, 2005 Otunbaev has emphasized in conversation with the Moscow journalists that "the American military presence in the republic is temporary".
As for Bakiev, his first official visit abroad in May 2005 was also to the Russian capital. Throughout 2005 he
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| Kurmanbek Bakiev and Vladimir Putin |
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visited Russia four times. Despite of the abovementioned facts, the Americans for a long time did not wish to reconsider their stand towards the new Kyrgyz regime. Only Bakiev's statement at July's summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization )SCO), and also the development of a situation in the republic in the second half of 2005 - beginning of 2006 had some influence on the Washington's officials. However, they preferred not to show it publicly. The reason for that lied in a sharp aggravation of the American - Uzbek relations in the spring - summer of 2005, which appreciable undermined the US positions in Central Asia. As a consequence the American presence in the region practically depended on the Kyrgyz President's wish. It was not accidental that in 2006 Kyrgyzstan was one of two CIS countries to which the USA have not reduced, but even increased the size of the financial aid (the second state is Ukraine).
At the same time, the present aggravation of situation in the republic causes concern in Washington. On April, 11, 2006 Bishkek was visited by the assistant to the Secretary of State on Southern and Central Asian affairs Richard Baucher. During his meeting with journalists he criticized the Kyrgyz authorities in a veiled way, having noted "bewilderment of the international community" in connection with the fact that "criminals are allowed into Kyrgyzstan's politics".
Edil Baisalov, the abovementioned mentioned leader of a coalition of nongovernmental organizations, gave more details on the views of the American diplomat on the conditions in the country.
He was one of a few unofficial persons with whom Baucher saw a necessity to meet. By his words, in the course of conversation "special attention was paid to the inability of a new leadership to cope with the attempts of the organized crime to infiltrate the authorities". According to a source in the Kulov's environment, this meeting was perceived with extreme suspicion on behalf of the administration of the President. Bakiev's advisers are afraid that the Americans, being finally convinced of his course on strategic partnership with Russia and China, decided to stake on Baisalov. The fears are strengthened by a fact that this politician really adheres to pro-Western views, and having been educated in the USA, enjoys support of some representatives of the American establishment.
Moreover, the President's confidants suspect Prime Minister Kulov himself of having secret communications with Washington. These suspicions are supported by confidential contacts of the "Gray Eminence" Yuri Sosnovsky – a power broker among the coterie of the head of the government, known for his extensive connections in the West. Kulov's meeting in March with representatives of the Israeli business circles, which was organized by Sosnovsky, also made President's confidants worry. These negotiations passed without any publicity, and during it questions of both economical and political character were discussed.
Bishkek's warnings
Having suspected the Americans (and their nearest allies the Israelis) in a double game, Bakiev decided to remind Washington who is the boss in the republic. On April 19, he appeared on the state TV station, warning that "Kyrgyzstan can put an end to the bilateral agreement with the USA" about placing of the American air base in the territory of the country.
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| Ganci Air base |
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The President emphasized that since his last meeting with the head of the Pentagon last summer "settling of the issue of further staying of the military and civil personnel of the US Ministry of Defense in the Kyrgyz republic" was delayed for 9 months. He told the truth, however it was not the American's fault.
Ganci Air Base adjoins to the Manas International Airport, located in 23 km northwest from Bishkek. It was established in December 2001 to support the counterterrorist operation of NATO in Afghanistan. About 1200 military men are serving at the base. After the American military contingent left Uzbekistan in November 2005, Ganci turned to be the only US military bridgehead in whole Central Asia.
After the change of authority in Bishkek, the issue of the further functioning of an air base for the first time was discussed during the visit of the US Minister of Defense the Donald Rumsfeld to Kyrgyzstan in April 2005. Following the negotiations Bakiev unequivocally declared that "all the arrangements between the two countries will be observed". However, several days prior to that, the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of the republic has assured the Russian journalists that "the American military presence in Kyrgyzstan is temporary". But at that time the Pentagon didn't pay any attention to that statement.
At the beginning of July 2005, during the SCO summit following the initiative of China and Russia a declaration was accepted, calling the USA to determine the deadline of presence of its military bases in Central Asia, and, in particular, in Kyrgyzstan. Later the ambassador of this republic in Moscow, Apas Jumagulov, declared at the press conference: "the US military base in Kyrgyzstan will be removed gradually, but the Russian - should remain". And the same month, right after the victory in the presidential elections (on which the Americans have splashed out $500 million), Bakiev decided to address the problem personally. He emphasized: "Now the situation in Afghanistan is stabilizing… therefore it is quite natural to question about the deadline of the presence stay of an air base of an antiterrorist coalition in the territory of Kyrgyzstan". Several days later, in an interview to the Russia TV channel, Bakiev admitted that the President Vladimir Putin was the initiator of discussion about the terms of the US base presence in Kyrgyzstan.
After all these statements, at the end of July 2005 the head of Pentagon again arrived in Bishkek. Subsequently, after the negotiations with him, the Kyrgyz President unexpectedly changed his opinion concerning the situation in Afghanistan, which, as it appeared "still remains a source of tension in the region". In this connection Bakiev emphasized that the terms of the American base's presence in Kyrgyzstan should be reconsidered in the context of the Afghani events, only on "bilateral basis" between Bishkek and Washington.
Then the local press explained the change in the President's estimation of the situation in Afghanistan by the Washington's guarantees on granting Bishkek the interest-free $200 million credit. Besides, during the stay of the Pentagon's head in Kyrgyzstan, the US Senate has approved the bill on allocation of additional gratis aid totaling $35 million to this republic. By the way, official documents marked that the specified sum is allocated to "upkeep democratic processes" in the Kyrgyz society.
Despite al that, in September 2005, upon returning from Moscow, Bakiev declared
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Donald Rumsfeld and Kurmanbek Bakiev |
his intention to increase the fee for stationing the US base in the republic. As the President explained, such step is necessary, "so the national economy will receive additional "infusion".
The Kyrgyzstan's leader explained the essence of financial claims to Washington in detail only at the beginning of November, after a meeting in Bishkek with the chief of the US CENTCOM John Abizaid. Bakiev said during a press conference: "A new draft agreement, which will demand more fees from the USA is being prepared now. They should pay for each meter of the ground they use according to the world prices". The next negotiations took place at the beginning of December, this time between the new Kyrgyz Minister of Foreign Affairs Alikbek Jekshenkulov and the Pentagon's representative Admiral Robert Mueller. Later the Russian press reported that Bishkek has demanded from Washington to increase the general payments for the base utilization from 40 up to $200 million annually. Their final conditions on the issue the Kyrgyz side finally presented to the Americans only at the end of January 2006. A special interdepartmental commission worked for several months on the project of a new agreement. At all that, Bakiev's representatives also demanded from the Americans to hold expert session in Bishkek "in the nearest future", to coordinate new conditions. And, finally, in the middle of February, the leader of the republic informed, that he demanded to increase Ganci's rent payment up to $207 million dollars. He explained "such a sharp increase" by a difficult economical situation in Kyrgyzstan.
And now Bakiev threatens "put an end to the bilateral agreement with the USA about stationing the Ganci air base, if the new contract will not be signed till Juny, 1, 2006", naturally, on the new Bishkek's conditions.
However, there are rather strong reasons to doubt determination of the Kyrgyz President in this issue. The leadership of the republic will hardly refuse voluntary one of the main sources of state revenues. In fact even under present "low" payment for the American military presence, which is reaching $40 million, it must not be forgotten that the annual budget of the republic is only $350 million. And this does not include the American financial aid to Kyrgyzstan, which, only within the framework of the governmental programs, will reach $32 million this year.
Besides, certainly the leaders of the republic realize that if the American military contingent will leave its territory, Kyrgyzstan will lose its geopolitical attraction, granted by the collision in its territory of interests of the large powers as the USA and Russia.
Staking on Moscow and Beijing
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| Kurmanbek Bakiev and Vladimir Putin |
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By threatening America with "discontinuation of the agreement on the an air base", Bakiev, besides abovementioned internal purposes, obviously tried to use a geopolitical card. That is supported in particular by the fact that the statement was made before two events, which are very important for the Bishkek's foreign policy: in May Bakiev is scheduled to visit Washington, and in June he is expected in Beijing, where the next SCO summit will take place.
From the point of view of forthcoming trip to the USA, the statement of the Kyrgyz President is called to pave a way for the final bargaining over increasing of the fee for the American military base in the republic.
As for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, strangely enough, in this connection it is necessary to recollect the statement of the American branch of Ar-Namys party, which is uniting Kulov's supporters. They have openly warned, that the fate of the current Kyrgyz President can be much like his predecessor's. Accordingly, against the background of growing tension in the republic, Bakiev aspires, just in case, to get maximal support of Moscow and Beijing. Russia and China are those, of whom the Kyrgyz President was speaking, stating that "our partners within the framework of the regional and other organizations expressed concern over the American air base's presence in the territory of Kyrgyzstan". The Russian, and, especially, Chinese leaders initially considered US military presence in Central Asia as a direct threat to their strategic interests.
They were behind initiation of the
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Kurmanbek Bakiev and
Chinese President Hu Jintao |
declaration concerning the terms of staying of the American bases in the region during the last year's summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. According to the Russian SCO coordinator Vitaly Vorobiev, "realization of the decisions" of the last year's summit is "a key element" of preparations of a meeting in Beijing in June. Such a resolute threats in address of the USA allow the Kyrgyz President to report honesty on his "struggle against the American expansion" in the region. In exchange he expects to get the Russian - Chinese support in the case of any troubling events back home. By the way, it is quite possible, that the threats, which were sounded on April 19 by the Kyrgyz President, have been previously coordinated with Moscow. In fact, one day prior to that, for certain it was not a casual statement by the ambassador of Russia in Bishkek Evgeny Shmagin, who declared: "The last months has shown that certain stabilization started in Kyrgyzstan". A queer statement it was taking into account a background of several murders of Members of Parliament, mafia's big shot winning in the elections to the Parliament and open confrontation between the Prime Minister and the President. The diplomat has especially emphasized, that the main thing is "always to keep in mind the interests of the country", but he did not elaborate, which one…
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