26.03.2006
Ukraine: Elections Now, Geopolitical Crisis Ahead
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Anders Asmus, AIA European section
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Parliamentary elections that take place in Ukraine today, will effectively set in motion a constitutional reform transforming the country from a presidential to a parliamentary republic and show whether losers of the Orange Revolution would be able to gain their revanche. The result of the poll will largely determine Ukraine’s foreseeable future and give an answer to a question whether the country will still look West, or with the changes Russia would be able to use the possibilities to curtail the EU and the US chances to influence processes in the region...
Ukraine – Russia: the Crossroads
The most serious changes since the presidential elections in Ukraine have happened in the relations between Ukraine and Russia. All the words by the official Kiev about friendship and necessity of good relations with Russia are nothing but forced tactical rethorics or completely insincere phrases, Vitaly Tretyakov, since recently the Editor-in-Chief of the Moscow News weekly, concluded after his visit to Kiev last week. In practical terms, after the “orange” revolution Ukraine did not want to keep playing the part of the “younger sister” and to keep up the [former President of Ukraine Leonid] Kuchma-style semblance of pretentious loyalty, while Russia did not consider it necessary anymore to leave inviolable the mechanism of economic subsidizing.
Arkady Moshes, Russia-EU Program Director at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, writes that notwithstanding the content of the next configuration of power in Ukraine, it is hard to imagine that Russia might return to the old preferential price policy it gave up so hardly and damaging its image. This makes even less likely that Ukraine might overestimate its foreign policy priorities.
In general, the Ukrainian-Russian bilateral relations have become more disputable, though, the conflicts are not advantageous to either side. Besides the bilateral conflicts do nothing but negatively influence relations of the both countries with Europe.
Watching the pre-election Ukraine, it seems that the Russian leadership has come to some definite conclusions on grounding on the erroneous policy conducted at that time when only one candidate had unconditional support, and as Russian political analyst Yevgeny Volk commented to Ukrainian service of the Voice of America, in the long run, it stroke Russia depriving her of an opportunity to influence on the
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Viktor Yanukovich |
political life, discrediting Putin, who showed personal attitude to [Party of Regions leader Viktor] Yanukovich, right up to a reception in his honour… During this pre-election campaign in Ukraine one may get an impression that Russia now does not want to interfere directly in the struggle, preferring to act behind the scene, exerting economic pressure and pursuing a policy, maybe not so evident, of destabilizing the situation not to leave a chance for Viktor Yushchenko’s landslide at the elections and, on the contrary, to strengthen his opponents, who speak for closer relations with Russia.
Since Russian TV channels have returned under the Kremlin’s umbrella, coverage of the current news items reflect the official realities. In February the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko has been the leader as the broadcasting time is concerned; at the same time the party block Our Ukraine received three times less coverage. The RTR channel’s popular news program Vestyi has used manipulations to render support to the Party of Regions. As to the timekeeping, this very party is rated as the first, followed by the Our Ukraine block and Communists. The previous week on the
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| Yulia Timoshenko, this time not the first though |
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Russian TV channels the Party of Regions and the Communist party of Ukraine were mentioned in neutral tonality, in passive tone – the Vladimir Litvin’s block, and the criticism was addressed most of all to the Tymoshenko block and Our Ukraine, committee Equality of opportunities witness.
Manipulative technologies are evident, for instance, in the segments where a flag signed ‘Our Ukraine’ has been burned away and poster of Yulia Tymoshenko stamped down. The emotional shade of the reports with certainty allows to conclude that the sympathies of the bosses of the TV channels belong to the Regional party of Ukraine.
At the same time most people understand in Russia that Yanukovich, the Regional party leader, is not mechanically playing in the interests of Russian business. Ariel Cohen, the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation, thinks that even if Yanukovich would expand his powers now, though, the version that he might head the government after the elections is hardly feasible, he would not automatically defend the interests of the Russian business, rather those of the business circles of Eastern Ukraine, that he has always represented.
The Kremlin has set its hear on not allowing the “Ukrainian scenario” to be realized in Russia, and it would be even better for it when this scenario would have ended in Ukraine itself. Moscow perceives the orienteering of Yushchenko’s government towards the West as a threat to its hegemonic rush in the CIS space. That’s why Moscow with satisfaction is following the growing contradictions within the current leadership in Kiev and is counting on the electoral victory of Yushchenko’ s main oponent Victor Yanukovich, who a kind of comes out in favour of stronger orientation of Ukraine towards Russia. A January gas blockade by Russia appears to have deepened Ukraine's economic slump while strengthening the hand of the pro-Moscow Yanukovych. "Unlike the present leadership, we will not build our strategy to the detriment of relations with Russia," Yanukovych said last week.
Specific methods of Moscow’ s attempts to influence the Ukrainian elections one can observe watching the activities of the organization named Non-commercial partnership Native Ukraine. This structure headed since recently by the retired FSB border guard service Lieutenant-General Yuri Babansky, was originally tailored to assist the Ukrainians who had appeared in a difficult situation in the territory of Russia. According to the online Glavred edition, its leadership in practice started to devote itself to quite different matters. Native Ukraine makes an impression of purposely searching for all those who are unsatisfied with the authorities in the historical motherland and is trying to widely voice their viewpoint, presenting it as the only right and appropriate, Glavred notes.
Dmitry Trenin, Carnegie Moscow Centre Deputy Director, writes in the Nezavisimaya gazeta this week that the strategic targets of the Russia’ s policy regarding Ukraine as far have not determined clearly enough. It must be understood that it is not real to expect Ukraine joining an economic union with Russia. Establishment of a joint defence space is even less realizable. Under the existing circumstances Moscow will most probably seek to reach mostly negative aims: undermining of Ukraine’ s orientation Westward, and particularly, to block its joining NATO.
While the Head of Penta, the Practical Political Research Centre, Vladimir Fesenko, considers that returning to the high level of strategic partnership between Ukraine and Russia is no more possible, Victor Alksnis, a Member of the Russian Parliament, has underlined that by any apportionment of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine nothing will essentially change in the bilateral relations as none of the political forces would gather the absolute majority. Talking to radio Golos Rossii, Head of the Research Centre of Political Values, Olesj Dony expressed his viewpoint that all the political forces of Ukraine will continue the course towards European integration.
Political expert, Editor-in-Chief of the Politicheskaya mislj scientific journal, Vladimir Polokhalo, argues that Russia put up with the Baltic countries, but will never submit to Ukraine, so it will attempt to gain further influence on the Ukrainian elites by
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Sergei Glazyev, Co-Chairman of Rodina faction in the
Russian Duma |
means of bribes and blackmail. Ukraine and Europe had to establish common rules of play against Russia, Polokhalo stated at his news conference in Lvov a few weeks ago. According to Polokhalo, for instance, a single approach to forming energy prices must be established, so that Gazprom and the Kremlin that controls it could not raise the price suddenly.
"There are influential financial circles in Russia that do not want a union with Ukraine, give them only a pretext," Sergei Glazyev, Co-Chairman of the Rodina faction in the Russian Duma, told the Moscow-based daily Vzglyad. According to Glazyev, not only the vigorous advance of Ukraine towards the EU but its joining NATO can serve as a ground for rupture of relations in many spheres of economy. If Ukraine will reject joining the treaty of the establishment of unified economic space, Russia “would be forced to do nothing but to raise the energy prices for Ukraine up to the European level.” That will immediately adversely affect chemical and metallurgy industry. Besides, Ukraine’ s strive towards the West would provoke Russia to establish visa regime with Ukraine, that would mean that Ukrainian suppliers would have extraordinary difficulties to penetrate into the Russia’s domestic market. Glazyev forecasts that it would result in cutting down of the Ukrainian export two times, rising in price of import and devalvation of grivna, the number of unemployed would rise by 2-5 million, and the living standard will descend by two times but in the Eastern areas even three times.
If upcoming Ukrainian elections bring in a deeply split parliament, that could lead to an extended political crisis that might play into Moscow's hands, experts say. Moscow still possesses a wide range of possibilities and resources to manipulate domestic policy situation in Ukraine. Ukrainian clans are much more busy with the power struggle and fighting for property than implementation of the programs significant for the society. The gas price game may lead to elevation of one or the other financial and political grouping and fall of the others. So, no doubt, Russia will keep actively playing in the Ukrainian political market.
The change of leadership in Kiev would strengthen Russia’ s role in the CIS and curtail the possibilities of the US and the EU to influence processes in the region, which is considered by the circle around Vladimir Putin circle belonging to its sphere of interests. But irrespective of that who will win the forthcoming elections, goverment of Ukraine will have to maintain good relations with both – Russia and the European countries.
The former president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma wrote that Ukraine - it is not Russia. That means Ukraine has two available ways – to always be a buffer (and a battlefield for competition) between Russia and the European Union, or to steadily join Europe, Deutsche Welle comments. In the long-time perspective the latter is more likely than the first.
US - Ukraine: Three Steps Forward, and Three Preconditions
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| US Ambassador in Ukraine John Herbst |
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Many experts in Kiev say directly that the results of the poll as well as configuration of the next coalition will be in line with the guidelines of John Herbst, the US Ambassador in Kiev, maintains Vitaly Tretyakov, Editor-in-Chief of the Moscow-based Moscow News weekly, who alleges that Ambassador Herbst is considered to be among the most influential “Ukrainian politicians”. Ambassador Herbst himself reiterated that Washington “does not support a particular favourite and will work with those who will be elected in the free, transparent and democratic elections.” As the Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns has stated on the official site of the US Department of State, in 2006 the further improvement of freedom in Ukraine is included among the the principal directions of the “Transatlantic cooperation” between the US and the European Union. Burns stated then that US “… must remain committed to pursuing the Freedom Agenda in Russia and Ukraine, we must encourage Ukraine, Georgia to seek NATO and EU ties.”
In the framework of general assistance United States have conveyed to Ukraine more than USD 13.3 mln “to organize free and honest elections”, as Ambassador Herbst has emphasized. Judging from the explanations of the US Senator Richard Lugar in 2004 when for the presidential elections in Ukraine Washington granted USD 13.8 mln, this money also this year is mostly being used to carry out exit-polls, support operation of the international observers, parallel counting of votes, preparation of electoral commissions members and educational programs for the electorate.
Though US officials deny they punt on certain political force in Ukraine, there are at least three major signs of support from the US for the pro-Western administration of President Yushchenko in the run-up to this week’s parliamentary elections.
On March 9, the US House of Representatives passed a bill permanently exempting Ukraine from trade restrictions imposed under the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment, which ties trade status to the rights of the Jews to emigrate. As the Kyiv Post noted, the timing of the bill's passage was not accidental. March 9 marked the beginning of a two-day official visit to Washington by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk. The bill has quickly passed the Senate and just a few days before Ukrainian elections, this Thursday, signed by President George W. Bush in order to become law. This decision was also intended to mobilize Ukraine’s western region to support Our Ukraine Block, headed, in fact, by President Yushchenko himself. One may agree with the Member of Ukrainian Parliament Stepan Gavrish who has commented to Regnum news agency that this step may be considered as compensation for Ukraine connected with its loss of Russian market, especially referring to steel and metal-roll markets. Of course, the question has external economic character, but undoubtedly, the cancellation of the Cold-War package of sanctions has a character of injections into shaken rate of Yushchenko, who has to show now, that Ukraine is a reliable strategic partner. This becomes more evident as the experts on external trade in Kiev openly admit that the amendment has not been applied to Ukraine since 1997.
The two other steps of support are dated February 17 when the US recognized Ukraine as a market economy and March 6 when Ukrainian Minister of Economy Arseniy Yatsenyuk signed a bilateral World Trade Organization protocol with the US with US Trade Representative Rob Portman.
It is not easy to predict how the voters would be influenced by these examples of support but for the US it has been worth trying to the best in Ukraine, as the euphoria over the "orange revolution" in 2004, which was backed by groups that received US funds, has produced a backlash in the form of an increasingly unpopular government and Russia’s determination to undermine Ukraine's independence.
Against this background, the statement of Defence Minister of Ukraine Anatoly Gritsenko (publicised by the Moscow-based Vremya novostei daily), that Ukraine will not let for lease to the US militaries the two early warning stations, in Sevastopol and
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US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice |
Mukachevo, that are currently rented by the Russian Armed Forces may seem weasel-worded. We may suppose that the US is interested in takeover of the radar stations to lease them after the Russians and some byplays about such perspective were sure enough included in the package of proposals on cooperation in the missile and space sphere President Yushchenko had forwarded the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Shortly before this Ukraine started transferring the early warning stations from the Defense Ministry responsibility to the National Space Agency supervision that legally would give the US experts access to the stations. Anyway, election eve in Ukraine is not the most appropriate time to invite more and more American militaries and to propose Ukraine’s radar stadions to them knowing Russia’s sensitivity about its borders and pro-Russian sentiments of a part of Ukrainians. Therefore Defence Minister Gritsenko has additionally emphasized that Americans have never submitted a radar stations leasing proposal to Ukraine.
After the transparent and fair elections this Sunday one of the three preconditions NATO and the US administration have put forward to bring nearer the country’s admittance to the alliance would be satisfied. The two other conditions will remain – continuation of political, economic and defense reforms, and education of the society on NATO issues in efforts to overcome the regional oposition to the strive for joining the alliance and to augment the public support for the membership. This week’s remarks by the Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov that Ukraine is still not in a hurry to join NATO, the same as Defence Minister’s unwelcoming statement on the radar station leasing prospects may also have been rehearsed or even coordinated with Washington just as the pre-election public relations shots aimed at those Ukrainians who are evidently strongly indoctrinated with the anti-NATO syndrom.
However that might be, the United States will finalize its stance regarding eventual Ukraine’s membership in NATO after the parliamentary elections and forming of the government in Ukraine, Foreign Minister of Ukraine Boris Tarasyuk confirmed this at a press conference on the results of his recent visit to the US. During this call US President George W. Bush accepted an invitation of President Yushchenko to pay an official visit to Ukraine, though, a date is yet to be set.
Ukraine – EU: Too Big a Player in Europe to Leave the Others Cold
Austrian Die Presse daily underlines that apart from the results of the Ukrainian elections the European Union member states have to attentively follow developments in the country to which the due attention was not paid for a longer time. In case of the power shift in Kiev Brussels should support Ukraine in its transition to parliamentary democracy even despite of some uncertainty of tits European perspective, the paper says.
The European Union already is involved in the situation in Ukraine much deeper than before, and according to Arkady Moshes, EU-Russia Program Director at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, it more directly senses its interest in the success of the reforms and is conscious of its responsibility over Ukraine. Europe unequivocally supported Ukraine in its gas dispute with Russia in winter 2006, although oen of the motives was the aspiration of the EU to not allow Russia to monopolize the access to the Central Asian energy resources. Ukraine as a key transit country and the EU come down in the same side of the collision while Russia stands in the opposite, Moshes writes. President Yushchenko is satisfied with the increased cooperation with the EU, including space and educational spheres, with the evident progress in bilateral cooperation with Great Britain, France and revision of visa regime attracted 1.6 times more tourists from Western countries. Wolfgang Schauble, Foreign Policy Guru in the team of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has emphasized that Berlin has complete mutual understanding with Kiev, in respect of the changes in German leadership. The striving to enter the EU, declining to join the Unitary economic space that is being created by Belarus, Kazahstan and Russia, is only one circumstance that has perplexed Kiev’s political dialogue with the participants of the Commonwealth of Independent States. According to online paper Denjgi, Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov admitted when talking to students and professors in Dnepropetrovsk March 21, that some of the CIS countries have attempted to influence the pre-election processes in Ukraine.
In contradistinction to those unnamed CIS countries, Ukraine faces understanding and support of the former Soviet satellite countries, nowadays the full NATO and the EU members, Poland in particular. Warsaw has actively supported its neigbour’s European aspirations and also masterminded possible activities by the Visegrad Group (an alliance of four Central European states: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) to give these European aspirations of Ukraine concrete substance.
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| Lech Kaczynski with Viktor Yushchenko in Kiev |
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Ukrainian First Deputy Foreign Minister Anton Buteiko has commented on a visit of Polish President Lech Kaczynski to Ukraine at the end of February, this year that talking about the mutual relations in the context of Ukraine’s movement towards the European Union and NATO, “Poland is one of few states that so actively support us in this movement both in terms of establishing new dimension of these relations and in terms of our citizens having optimal visa regime in relations with the European Union.” During his visit to Kiev Kaczynski assured Victor Yushchenko that, from this moment on, Poland would actively lobby for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. And that he personally would support Ukraine joining the EU and NATO. Practically the same time the foreign ministers of Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia called for the European Union to formulate “definite prospects for Ukraine”, meaning to designate at least a rough date for their accession into the EU and the criteria governing this. As Kaczynski is concerned, some observers find that he is not especially reliable in his role as a lobbyist for Ukrainian interests as his previous comments – and those that the EU has nowhere to enlarge anymore – have not been forgotten in the “old Europe’”. Kaczinsky does not make a secret that Ukraine is attractive for Warsaw in settling energy safety issues and he keeps underlining that “discussion of this issue can become a great opportunity that can accelerate Ukraine’s coming nearer to NATO and the EU.”
Energy safety theme plays an important role also in the attitude towards Ukraine by another Visegrad group country, Hungary. During the climax of the gas debate between Ukraine and Russia, Hungary appealed to the EU asking to interfere in the gas talks of Kiev and Moscow. A letter on the issue was sent to the European Commissioner on Energy by the Hungarian Economy and Transport Ministry in the very last days of 2005. No doubt, Budapest is afraid that the disagreement between Russia and Ukraine on the issue of gas price could negatively affect gas supplies from Russia to Hungary. Much longer is the Ukraine’s borderline with Romania, and more problems there still exist in the bilateral relations. The status of Zmeyini isle is being discussed, there is a problem of Dunaj channel, concerning interests of Romania, there are certain territorial pretensions by the Romanian radical forces. As Director of the Institute for Euroatlantic cooperation Sergey Yevtushenko puts it, the predisposition towards Ukraine demonstrated by Romania, may be connected rather with activities of the US Department of State, not activities of Kiev. Romania can’t remain indifferent to the results of the elections in Ukraine and the coalition formed there because, in fact, the both countries are linked by a strategic partnership. Director of the Global Strategies Institute Vadim Karasev has specified that the linkage of Romania and Ukraine, respectively a current and a potential future NATO member, is significant in the strategic planning of the alliance in its advance towards the Black Sea-Caspian basin, and a strategic bridgehead between Russia, Iran and China. Secondly, Romania and Ukraine is factually a core of the Commonwealth of democratic choice project that is a complementary process to NATO development taking into consideration the necessity of the new pro-Atlantic Eastern Europe. Clearly, Kiev’s geopolitical position has shifted Westward since the days of former President Leonid Kuchma, whose foreign policy could be summed up under the word of “multi-vector” and there are many players that would not like to see the reverse motion.
Related items:
Ukrainian Parliamentary Election - Overview (26.03.06)
EuroSummit 2006: "Old Europe" Prefers Russia to Poland (24.03.06)
Poland Will Tear the EU Away From Russia (01.03.06)
Dangerous Liaisons of the Ukrainian Establishment (22.08.05)
Ukrainian Army Sees Israel as Alternative to Russia (31.07.05)
Tehran Strives to Influence the Biggest European States (17.07.05)
In 10 Years Ukraine Will Be the EU Member (22.05.05)
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