Russian version
Moscow's Double Game
Against the background of the Kyrgyz opposition stirring up the struggle in the beginning of this year, the Russian leadership pretended to support President Akaev. In January and February, accompanied by his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Akaev visited Moscow. There they tried in every possible way to convince their Russian interlocutors that the opposition was pro-Western, and that should it win, Russia would lose its influence in Kyrgyzia and, consequently, in all Central Asia. Representatives of the Kremlin pretended to agree with this "analysis". The Russian mass media was flooded with panicked texts about the Western expansion into the region of Central Asia, and the Kyrgyz opposition was labeled as its main promoter. The mass media of the United States and the countries of the European Community responded to these messages. They started to perceive the situation in the republic through the prism of confrontation between the Russia and the West. Due to this, Akaev`s opponents managed to increase considerably the amount of the financial aid coming from various Western organizations. At the same time, leaders of the opposition not only had no intention of altering the pro-Russian orientation of Bishkek, but by virtue of their education and life experience, they could not do so even had they wanted. Bakiev, for example, received his education in Russia, where he married his Russian wife. When he retuned home, he became part of the exclusive party elite closely connected to Moscow. The majority of his colleagues have similar biographies. They fought against Akaev not for ideology, but solely to return to power. And the Kremlin knew this. Shortly after the revolution, the new head of the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry admitted that each of the former opposition leaders has sufficient patronage in Moscow ("Moscowski Komsomolets" 14.04.05). Without refuting the created stereotypes, in January - February 2005 the Kremlin established active communication with Akaev`s opponents. Four prominent representatives of the opposition, including Bakiev, came to Moscow during this period of time. Russia, of course, tried to keep these contacts confidential. All visits were of an informal character. Bakiev was welcomed by the ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs, the recent head of Russia`s Security Council, Igor Ivanov, and other outstanding public figures in the Russian leadership. Judging by subsequent events, it can be claimed that Moscow and Akaev`s opponents at least managed to agree upon coordinating their actions.
The Trap for the President
One month prior to the beginning of disorders in Kyrgyzia, Moscow stopped its public contacts with Akaev`s opponents. After they seized control over the southern regions of the republic, on March 19Akaev secretly left for the Russian capital. The Kyrgyz President expected assistance from the Kremlin in dealing with the crisis. However, Moscow unequivocally showed him that the Russian leadership primarily was afraid of an escalation of the conflict in Kyryzia. The Kremlin did not exclude the possibility that the conflict might cause a burst of activity of Islamic radicals and consequently lead to a strengthening of the American military presence in the region.
Akaev received an explanation that to prevent such a scenario, he should make concessions to the opposition as part of the negotiations with its representatives. Only in this case would the President and his retinue receive guarantees of personal immunity in any further development of the situation. To prevent accusations of Russian intervention in the affairs of Kyrgyzia, Bakiev and his colleagues have publicly addressed Moscow with the request that Russia serve as an intermediary in negotiations with the Kyrgyz authorities.
Akaev, trusting Russian completely, finally lost control of the situation and was compelled to flee to Russia. There he again came under pressure from the Kremlin officials and as a result resigned his presidency. After this, Bakiev noted that Moscow had played "a positive role" in the Kyrgyz revolution (Le Monde, 06.04.05).
The Main Strategic Partner
A day after coming to power, Bakiev declared "we do not see our future without Russia" ("Moscowski Komsomolets" 26.03.05). He then called the Russian President. It was Bakiev`s first conversation with the foreign leader as the leader of Kyrgizia. Bakiev asked his interlocutor for financial support to the republic, first of all for the agricultural sector, and also for the restoration of Bishkek`s infrastructure. The first plane with humanitarian aid from President Putin landed on March 30 at the Russian military base near the Kyrgyz capital. The acting Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Rosa Otunbaeva came to Moscow in April on an official visit. This was the first foreign trip of the representative of the new government of the republic
On the day of her departure, Bakiev declared, "Russia was and remains the closest strategic partner for us" (TV channel "Russia", 10.04.05).
Meanwhile, Otunbaeva met with her colleague Sergey Lavrov, who, first of all, mentioned the problems of the Russian-speaking population in Kyrgyzia. Otunbaeva guaranteed not only their safety and the improvement of their economic situation,, but also promised to promote Russian language and culture in the republic.
During the negotiations, she also declared that the new government is not going to change the conditions of the Russian military presence in Kyrgyzia, but noted that the presence of Americans is temporary. "We prolong the contract each year, but I can assure you, that it not forever", she emphasized ("Moscowski Komsomolets", 14.04.05).
Promoters of the Russian Influence
Bakiev promised "to do everything to strengthen relations between Kyrgyzia and Russia" ("Izvestia", 06.04.04). Otunbaeva, for her part, confirmed that relations with Moscow "remained a priority of foreign policy" for Bishkek ("Vremya Novostey", 13.04.05(.
The new leadership of Kyrgyzia is going to expand cooperation with Russia within the framework of the regional organizations and even through the channels of their secret services. In addition, Bakiev has personally taken steps to promote Russian business in the republic`s market. Most of all, he is interested in the participation of Russian companies (RAO "United Power Systems" and RusAl) in the construction both of two hydroelectric power stations on the river Kambar-Ata in central Kyrgyzia and of an aluminum factory in the South.
At the same time, Bakiev has promoted popularization of the Russian language in the republic and the introduction of dual citizenship in Kyrgyzia and Russia. His readiness for rapprochement with Moscow has so motivated Kremlin officials that some of them even have resuscitated the idea of linking Kyrgyzia to the Union of Russia and Belarus.
The idea arose seven years ago, and in 2003 40 representatives of the Kyrgyz opposition publicly expressed their support for it.
Against the background of strained relations with the Baltic states and the sharp falling of Russia in the CIS, sharp political advancement in the South would come in the nick of time for Moscow.
The Chronicle of Relations Between the new Kyrgyz Leaders and Russia
January - February: Four leading figures of the Kyrgyz opposition (including Kurmanbek Bakiev and Rosa Otunbaeva) came to Moscow for negotiations with the Russian authorities.
March 19: President Akaev arrived secretly in Moscow, hoping for assistance in solving the political crisis in Kyrgyzia. The Kremlin demanded that he make concessions to the opposition.
March 24: Leaders of the Kyrghyz opposition publicly addressed Moscow, requesting Russia to serve as the intermediary at negotiations with Akaev`s authorities.
March 26: In his interview in the Russian newspaper "Izvestia", Bakiev (the new leader of Kyrgyzia) declared that without Russia he does not see a future for the republic; Putin noted in return that "leaders of the opposition are well-known in Russia and have done a lot for the development of Russian - Kyrgyz relations".
March 27: Bakiev initiated the first phone conversation with Putin. The leader of Kyrgyzia asked the Russian president to supply aid to the republic.
March 28: In his interview in the "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", Bakiev guaranteed the participation of Russian companies in large building projects in Kyrgyzia.
March 30: At Putin's personal order, the first Russian plane with humanitarian aid took off for Kyrgyzia.
April 3: Akaev, residing in Moscow, officially resigned presidential powers under pressure of the Russian establishment
April 6: In his interview to Le Monde, Bakiev declared, "Russia has played a positive role in the Kyrgyz revolution".
April 10: The new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzia, Rosa Otunbaeva, came to Moscow on an official visit. In his interview for the TV channel "Russia", Bakiev declared: " Russia was and remains the closest strategic partner for us". The second Russian plane with aid arrived to Kyrgyzia.
April 11: During the negotiations between Otunbaeva and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow, Otunbaeva declared that Bishkek is not going to change the conditions of the Russian military presence in Kyrgyzia (two days later she claimed that the American presence in the republic was temporary).
April 13: Negotiations between Bakiev and representatives of the Moscow city authorities took place in Bishkek. The Russians undertook to assist in construction of residential areas in the Kyrgyz capital. In her interview in the Russian newspaper "Vremya Novostey", Otunbaeva declared that relations with Russia remained the priority in the foreign policy of Kyrgyzia.
April 28: Bakiev appointed Apas Jumagulov as the new Ambassador of Kyrgyzia in Russia. Bakiev called for the introduction of dual citizenship in Kyrgyzia and Russia.
May 6: Bakiev declared his support for more extensive teaching of the Russian language in Kyrgyzia and again called for the introduction of dual citizenship with Russia. Bakiev appointed Vice-Premier Danijara Usenova to be chairman of the Kyrgyz delegation of the Intergovernmental Kyrgyz-Moscow joint commission (created in January 2002).
May 7: Bakiev went on an official visit to Moscow, meeting with the Patriarch of the Orthodox church, Alexii II, and the head of the Industrial Chamber of Commerce of Russia, Eugenyi Primakov.
May 8: Bakiev took part in the Moscow summit of CIS leaders, under the chairmanship of Putin.
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