Russian version
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| Valentin Korabelnikov, the chief of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) |
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Contrary to the diplomats, many officers of Russian military intelligence (GRU) and the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) working on Middle Eastern affairs, estimate the results of the Palestinian elections rather negatively, our sources report. In their opinion, the victory of HAMAS will promote even greater activization of a radical Islamic movement in the Middle East that can indirectly affect the situation in Central Asia and in the Northern Caucasus. The main culprits in the situation, according to the employees of the Russian secret services, are the American and Israeli colleagues that did not manage not only to prevent, but even to expect the results of the voting.
The officers of the GRU and the SVR are certain that the victory of HAMAS is part of a new wave of a general process of Islamisation in the Middle East. In their opinion, the growth in popularity of the Islamic radical movement in this region was promoted by the Palestinian Intifada, and also by the actions of the Americans in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Now they are afraid that the results of elections in Palestine will serve as a powerful push for even greater activization of Islamists, first of all in the Arab world, and partly in other Muslim countries. The main danger, in the opinion of the experts of the Russian secret services, lies today in HAMAS victory's possible consequences for Jordan and Egypt.
Palestinians make up more than half of the population of the Hashemite Kingdom. The local Islamic movement enjoys huge support in the population and traditionally promotes close connections with Palestinian Islamists. In the eyes of the Jordanian fundamentalists, the victory of HAMAS could serve as a model to be followed. In the opinion of the SVR and GRU representatives, the strengthening of Islamic opposition in this Kingdom, may promptly affect the situation in the Caucasian region. First of all, one of the largest Middle Eastern communities of natives of the Northern Caucasus lives in Jordan. Second, since the latter half of the 1990s, Jordanian radical organizations cooperated with similar groupings in Lebanon in rendering full support to the Chechen Islamists, starting from financial assistance and preparation of printed propaganda materials to sending volunteers to the Caucasus.
As for Egypt, against the background of the strengthening positions of the Muslim Brotherhood in Parliament and President Mubarak's unstable health, the activities of the Islamists influenced by events in Palestine, in the long term, can bring a destabilization of the internal political situation in this country, and, in the worst scenario, bring them to power. The Russian special services' employees consider that such a scenario is the most probable one after Mubarak's leaving the political arena and in case of the beginning of a struggle for power between his potential successors.
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| Jibril Rajoub |
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According to the estimations of the GRU and SVR officers, destabilization in the largest Arab country will inevitably affect the situation in the whole Muslim world, including the republics of Central Asia and the Northern Caucasus.
As for further actions in the Palestinian direction, opinions of the employees of two major Russian secret services differ.
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Nasser Yusef |
Almost all of them, without rejecting the opportunity of their own contacts with HAMAS, consider as extremely undesirable FATAH joining the new government. In their opinion, this organization has to get rid of the older generation of leaders who lost any authority in the eyes of the population and are responsible for the defeat in the elections. Young leaders should be a real alternative to the Islamic government, and in every possible way use its difficulties and mistakes to get promptly back into power. However in a question upon whom Russia should rely, the employees of the GRU and SVR see different candidates. Though both consider the former chief of the Palestinian General Security Service in Gaza, Muhammad Dahlan, to be the most promising FATAH representative, they do not consider him an option. In the opinion of the Russians, he is, first of all, a creature of Washington and London. Therefore, the Russian Foreign Intelligence made its own choice – Jibril Rajoub, the former head of the Palestinian General Security Service on the Western Bank. He is traditionally considered to be Dahlan's competitor and throughout the last several years has supervised contacts with the SVR on the most important questions of cooperation. In its turn, the GRU obviously prefers the present Minister of Internal Affairs, Nasser Yusef. He received his military education in the Soviet Union, is a sworn opponent of the Islamists, and was always, even in the days of Arafat, far-sighted and independent. The employees of the Russian Foreign Intelligence consider Yusef to be a representative of the old generation and consequently absolutely unpromising.
As usually happens, the opinion of the experts from the Russian secret services, as against the position of diplomats, received almost no publicity.
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Mikhail Grishankov |
However this time, the Intelligence Community, tried to show its fears to the establishment, not only through the narrow service channels. On January 27, in an interview with the governmental RIAN agency, the deputy head of the parliamentary committee on security, Mikhail Grishankov, declared: "The victory of the right-winged radical HAMAS in parliamentary elections in Palestine can lead to an escalation of tensions in the whole Middle Eastern region". And while the Russian diplomats named the results of the voting - "a major event on the way to further democratization of Palestinian society and creation of the institutions of a future state", Grishankov said that it is "the capturing of authority by armed deputies". He also noted: "the situation in the elections in Palestine is alarming to any sane person".
The fact that Grishankov was the one to make public the opinion of the special services is not casual. In the Eighties he worked in the Soviet military industry, and in 1990-99 served in the KGB and in the Federal security service (FSB), leaving the service with the rank of Colonel.
Concluding the interview he clearly implied which scenario seems the most realistic to his former colleagues: "Palestine lives due to foreign money, and in case of sanctions people will be starving. Then the rule of HAMAS will end within one week "...
Related item:
Russia is Ready for Dialogue With HAMAS
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