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| Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov (L) and his Indian counterpart Pranab Mukherjee |
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This month Russian foreign policy in the Southeastern direction engendered its first poisonous fruit, the blossoming of which was predicted only by a few analysts. The Russo-Indian "dances with swords" pushed Islamabad to participate in a renewed arms race in the region. The fragile process of reconciliation between Pakistan and India will inevitably be harmed, if not broken, to Russia's joy. But let us not rush the analysis.
The most important, bombastic event of the month was, of course, the three-day visit of the Indian Defense Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, to Russia, which began on November 15. As PTI put it, he went to "review bilateral military cooperation and identify new areas of partnership such as joint ventures to manufacture futuristic weapon systems." Besides meeting with the highest Russian politicians, including President Putin, and top Russian Defense Ministry brass, Mukherjee together with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Ivanov, headed the fifth session of the Russian-Indian Intergovernmental Commission on military –technological cooperation. As Mukherjee said, India and Russia decided to renew a defense cooperation program when the current 10-year program expires in 2010. "After 2010 we will review the progress and have another 10-year program," the Hindu quoted him on completion of his visit to Russia. "Our defense cooperation with Russia is a continuous process and some projects will overlap the 2010 threshold." The Russian Defense Minister, Ivanov, said to the Russian press "India is the only country with which Russia has such a long-term base document covering practically all the spheres of interaction of the military-industrial complexes of the two state signatories.” Sergey Ivanov emphasized that neither country is limited to the framework of export of military equipment but co-produce several kinds of Russian weapons, for example, tanks and aircraft, and sell them to other countries. As Ivanov also noted, there are other issues of mutual interest such as joint modernization of the Indian, Soviet and Russian –made technical equipment, and creation of necessary conditions for its servicing.
During the upcoming December visit of the Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, to Moscow for the annual Indo-Russian summit between the Indian leader and Russian President, it is planned for them to sign two intergovernmental agreements – on mutual protection of the rights of intellectual property, and also on joint creation of a prospective aircraft technology of the fifth generation and a multi-purpose military - transport plane”, the Russian Defense Minister said. He noted that the signing of the intellectual property agreement would jumpstart already effective cooperation, lower financial expenses and speed up the process of creating modern weapons. During the session the $10 billion worth package of contracts on delivery to India of Russian arms was discussed. As Mukherjee declared, outlining the results of the successful session: "Russia is the main partner of India in the military industrial sphere. Russia has been, and remains the largest source of our arms, weapon systems and technology imports." In a keynote address at the General Staff Academy of the Russian armed forces, Mukherjee also said: "Today the bedrock of India's relations with the Russian Federation is the multi-faceted military relationship, of which the most dynamic sector is our cooperation in the military-technical area."
It is interesting to review the spheres and issues the sides touched and agreed upon during the discussions.
First of all it was agreed to hold additional INDRA 2005 type drills in Russia in 2007 planned for the special services of both countries.
Secondly, in the aerial sphere, Mukherjee and Ivanov finalized an accord on the joint development and production of 145 IL-214/MTA medium range multi-role transport aircraft, which would be signed during the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Moscow. Moscow and New Delhi each plan to invest $190 million in the project, with 100 MTA planes to be built for the Russian Air Force and 45 for India. The proposal for jointly producing the aircraft, with a carrying capacity of approximately 20 tons, was first made by Russians some time back, but it never gathered enough momentum due to various irritants in bilateral relations. The new plane, Indian officials point out, and the Hindu reported, would not only be a transporter for the military but it could also be converted into a passenger plane capable of carrying about 100 passengers. Given the booming aviation sector, the plane would have a huge market outside the military, they say. The plane would be cheaper than equivalent products available elsewhere in the world, they add.
There was also a setback in the aerial sphere when Pranab Mukherjee noted that the two countries would not be inking an agreement on the joint development of fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The Russian Sukhoi Holding has made a presentation of the fighter to the Indian Air Force, but India was not satisfied with its heavy design. However, the setback was really minor, for Mukherjee clearly stated India's willingness to jointly develop and produce a super fighter with Russia from scratch and invited the Russian MiG Company to present its project before the Indian Air Force's top brass. It was noted that the IAF is in favor of a lighter fighter and is looking forward to the MiG presentation, PTI noted.
In another sphere – the missile issue, speaking of the prospect of selling jointly produced BrahMos missiles to third countries, Mukherjee said India has already inducted the supersonic missile but Russian legislation did not allow the induction of weapons co-produced with another country. "I suggested to the Russian side that they amend their legislation to induct the missile before we start marketing it," Mukherjee said. The Russian Government has drafted the necessary amendments and sent them to Parliament. To remind, before visiting Russia, Mukherjee went to Chile to sign a deal on selling BrahMos missiles.
Also the sides discussed the issue of turning India into the fifth world superpower owing nuclear-powered submarines. Today only the United States, Russia, France and China possess them and India wants to join the club. To the Moscow's pity New Delhi will not buy already made Russian subs like the one with an extremely low-noise power plant and low-magnetic steel hull, which demonstrated its capabilities during INDRA-2005.
Currently two submarines of this class are under construction in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. One of these submarines named “Nerpa” (Seal) is already in the water and its nuclear reactor has been started while the second is 70 percent ready. These submarines were offered to the Indian Navy, but New Delhi decided to build its own subs.
The design of the submarine is ready, and the project, called Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), has the involvement of the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and the Navy. The ATV is a top-secret project and the facilities are situated at BARC, Trombay, and Kalpakkam. When everything is ready, the submarine will be built at Visakhapatnam. The ATV project has its origin in the 1970s. The Indian leadership expects that the submarine will cruise the seas in five years. The sub miniature reactor's capability is about 100 MWe and the fuel is highly enriched uranium. Many components of the reactor, such as the steam-generator and the control rod mechanism, were fabricated in the country. However, the Indians are not so sure they will manage to cope with the building themselves – so as Mukherjee said, Russia had assured him that it would share the technology for building the ATV.
Remember, India had leased from Russia Chakra, - "Scat" ("Charlie I" class) a nuclear-powered submarine, from 1988 to 1991.This gave the Indian Navy a hands-on experience. Also it left its imprint on the plans of the Indian scientists who are behind the ATV design, so the Russians will definitely have their say in the project.
There is also another interesting issue that must be noted. New Delhi, obviously, understood that such a successful visit of the Defense Minister to Moscow would cause concerns in Washington. One attempt to quell the US concerns even preceded the visit – it was Cope India 2005 drill, which was jointly held by Indian and American Air Forces a week before Mukherjee came to Moscow.
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| Indian Sukhoi-30 MKI |
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However the attempt went wrong - the observers say that in a surprising number of encounters - particularly between the American F-16s and the Indian Sukhoi-30 MKIs - the Indian pilots came out the winners. "Since the cold war, there has been a general assumption that India is a third-world country with Soviet technology, and wherever the Soviet-supported equipment went, it didn't perform well," says Jasjit Singh, a retired air commodore and now director of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. "That myth has been blown out by the results" of these air exercises, he said, as the Christian Science Monitor reported.
After the visit Indian officials decided to talk themselves out. Here are two interesting quotes, both dated November 24, which must be brought together.
"Observing that India and Russia have maintained an unbroken and steady friendship for over 60 years, Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Kanwal Sibal, has said the partnership between the two countries is unparalleled in the world" (PTI).
Simultaneously in Washington, India and the United States agreed to further strengthen bilateral defense cooperation and emphasized the importance of service-to- service ties at the meeting of the Defence Policy Group (DPG). The three-day meeting of the DPG, held in an "extremely frank, friendly and co-operative atmosphere," was co-chaired by Indian Defense Secretary, Shekhar Dutt, and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Eric Edelman. The two sides exchanged views on the international strategic and security situation and on the further development of bilateral defense cooperation as envisaged under the Indo-US Defense Framework agreement, inked in June of this year. (PTI)
It is hard to know whether these words calmed the Americans down. But it is well known that India's $10 billion deals with Russia made Islamabad literally freak out. Less than 10 days after the visit of Pranab Mukherjee to Moscow, Pakistan reported its readiness to spend $300 million out of $698 million being extended by United States early next year for the purchase of F-16 fighter planes and maritime patrol aircraft Orion PC-3. Previously Pakistan was supposed to postpone the purchase of the fighter jets from the United States in order to provide more relief to victims of the October 8 earthquake. However, after the Indian Defense Minister deal in Moscow, Pakistan is looking to acquire 25 used F-16 planes and 50-55 new ones as quickly as possible.
But the local experts are worried that this is not sufficient for the country's defense. "Pakistan may wish to think twice about acquiring F-16s following reports that in the recently concluded joint US-Indian air force exercises, the much-vaunted aircraft did not come out the winner in its “encounters” with Indian Sukhoi-30 MKIs," the Pakistani Daily Times noted. Purchases of other weapons are also considered in this quake-stricken country, purchases, which will certainly boost the arms race in the region.
Undoubtedly, another state in the area will react the same way as Pakistan did. China will not stand aside watching other countries rearm, so it is predictable that it will also boost its own production and purchases. Considering itself a regional superpower, China strives to overcome any competitor in the area, reacting sharply to changes in any sphere, especially in the military.
Beijing does not have very warm relations with the USA and the West; Beijing has only one address to turn to for weapons – Moscow…
So actually, the huge $10 billion worth weapons deal with India brought Russia immediate dividends. Interestingly enough, in June of this year Rosoboronexport director general, Sergey Chemezov emphasized that the level of purchases of weapons by India and China may fall next year and Russia has to do something to avoid this situation. Well, it did. And they did it well. Besides hooking up India and China in the military sphere, Russian policy became a source of instability in the region, drastically reducing the US and Western influence in Asia. As it was noted in our July review, in the situation of a dangerous escalation of the arms race in the region Washington will find itself powerless to act, as it will be unwilling to compromise both its tactical relationship with Islamabad and its growing "alliance of need" with New Delhi.
And, by the rules of the Great Game – those who are powerless to act – will have to "get out of the kitchen."
P.S. It may sound like a joke, but Pakistani bloggers are discussing the seemingly impossible idea of purchasing the Russian-made Su and MiG planes instead of the F-16s. Maybe it is not as impossible as it seems. Ukraine, which since the beginning of the Nineties has good connections in the sphere of selling military production to Pakistan, may sell Su and MiG jets to Islamabad, the new ones, made in Russia. So the West may lose again…
Related items:
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - October 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (Monthly Review - September 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (The Monthly Review - August 2005)
The Great Indian Chessboard (The Monthly Review - July 2005)
India in Eurasian Geopolitics (June 2005)
India in Eurasian Geopolitics (May 2005)
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