Analysis of the situation in Estonia, written by the AIA European section coordinator, provoked a highly emotional reaction from the Estonian Prime Minister. What followed were tens of publications online and in print in Baltic and CIS countries concerning this subject. Because of such a high interest in exclusive information and unconventional analytical writings on the Baltic issues, AIA will pay even more attention to it from now on. In the near future we are planning to publish an article on one of the region's most vexed and unknown problems, using a number of secret documents of the Russian intelligence…
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The main page of DELFI |
The Estonian section of DELFI, the biggest Internet portal in the Baltic States, today published an interview with AIA expert, Simon Araloff. It was devoted primarily to Araloff's article analyzing the situation in Estonia, and its relations with the EU and Russia, against the background of October municipal elections. This was not the first of his publications concerning the Baltic region. However, according to DELFI, it, more than any other, "outraged a part of the Estonian public." Moreover, according to Estonian journalists, Araloff's analysis provoked "the
irritation of the Prime Minister Andrus Ansip." On October 20, the latter commented on the publication of our expert in a highly i
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| Andrus Ansip |
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mpulsive manner. Not hiding his annoyance, the Head of the Cabinet asserted: "Some Simon Araloff makes some assumptions, and I must comment on it." Mr. Ansip so emotionally and earnestly refuted the AIA report that his speech became the best evidence of the report's credibility. It is noteworthy that no refutation ever came from Brussels.. Such a stormy reaction by the Estonian Prime Minister was provoked by the following part of Araloff's analysis:
"The results of the last parliamentary elections in Germany, and also probable assignment of Frank Walter Steinmeier to the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs of this country, evidently shows that Berlin will not change its course on "strategic partnership" with Moscow in the field of power. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's last visit to London one week ago shown that such countries as Britain, France and Belgium already stand in a queue to get connected to the future German-Russian gas pipeline. In such a situation the active position of Estonia and its East European partners on "anti-Putin's" bloc started to irritate the European Community's leadership. Brussels decided that the municipal elections in this country can be used for support of those political forces which will agree on mitigation of positions concerning Moscow, and also concerning Russian-speaking minority of Estonia (including recognition of Russian as the second official language in the country)".
Commenting on the Prime Minister's reaction, one of the DELFI forum posters logically mentioned: "According to all signs, there is a delicate and confidential pressure. Otherwise, why would one be so nervous? However, to admit this fact in front of one's own electorate means to lose its last faith in a bright future within the EU."
Many of the Russian-speaking residents of Estonia, in their turn, greeted Araloff's analysis in a very hostile way. For some reason they assumed that the conclusions of our expert are directed against the Russian-speaking minority in this Republic, and allegedly are designed to "drive a wedge between Estonia and Old Europe, to the Americans' advantage." Parliament Member from the Centrist party (Eesti Keskerakond), Vladimir
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Vladimir Welman |
Welman went even further claiming that "Someone in the USA wants to reconnoiter the ground to create the anti-EU moods in Estonia."
The AIA initially chose not to react to Andrus Ansip's speech. The main reason was that his words were based not upon valid counterarguments, but upon assaults and personal attacks, which are uncharacteristic of these politicians. Furthermore, however, the mass media of Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, and Russia published more than forty articles focusing on Araloff's analysis. Many of them contained a clearly intentional corruption of our expert's words. Others brought up totally baseless accusations against AIA. As a consequence we decided to come forward with DELFI's request for the interview with Araloff. Later, the AIA editorial board found it necessary to publish its own position on certain issues.
AIA totally denies any propaganda on ethnic or religious grounds. AIA sometimes expresses tough criticism of the ruling regimes of some Eurasian countries, but this criticism is never against the peoples of these countries or against their faith.
Before each publication, the AIA authors perform a thorough reliability check of any exclusive information, usually based on several independent sources. After the article arrives from the author, it passes through careful editorial examination.
In the future, articles that are of a great interest in the CIS and Baltic countries, will be published also in the languages of those countries, or in Russian.
Following is the English version of the interview with Simon Araloff that was published by DELFI in Estonian language.
SIMON ARALOFF'S ANSWERS
Can you tell us more precisely what was the basis of your analysis about EU
to force Estonia to accept Russian as a second official language? As a
source, you mentioned conversations with diplomats. Without naming any
names, can you tell us, who are they? Are they Estonian diplomats in
Brussels, Western diplomats in Tallinn or Western diplomats in
Brüssels/London/Paris/Washington/Moscow?
My analysis relies upon my regular conversations with Western diplomats in Washington, and in Berlin, as well as with their East-European colleagues in the Baltic States and Poland. And of course, it also bases on my own experience.
Do you consider your article as a provocative warning or do you really think
that bilingual Estonia is something we cannot avoid in the future?
Estonian and Latvian societies are already bilingual de facto. Personally, I would like to see your country free from any trace of the Russian occupation (my own family had suffered deportation from the Baltic region by the Soviets), but the painful reality is different. It's very important that now the Baltic States may freely chose whether they like to be bilingual also de jure, without any pressure from outside, even not from the EU "friends". That's, in fact, what my article was about.
Estonian PM Andrus Ansip said that your analyses was "complete rubbish". How
do you comment his view?
The pressure on the Baltic States from Brussels, and from the other West-European Capitals during the past few months is the kind of reality you just cannot ignore. Mr. Ansip, being a leader of the EU member-state, cannot publicly recognize it.
PM also said that nothing happens in the EU without our acceptance. What is
your comment about that?
I'd like to see Estonia and the other Baltic States getting more influence on policy-making process within the EU. But in reality the real influence belongs to the rich "old" members of the Union.
In your opinion, has Estonia's position strengthened or weakened in dealing
with Russia after joining the EU?
As to the position of Estonia within the EU – it is a very complicated question. To be concise, Estonia is now very much influenced by the EU "old" members, including in the issue of its bilateral relations with Moscow.
Estonian language is the one and only official language in our constitution.
Constitution is very hard to change in Estonia. What do you think will be
the mechanisms or processes that will bring bilingualism to Estonia?
I cannot comment on the mechanism of the Constitution's change. I do not have any relevant information on this subject.
Do you think that besides language law, Brussels will start pressuring
Estonia to ease the citizenship law as well?
As for the citizenship law - of course. The real matter is a whole complex of issues concerning the status of the Russian minority in the Baltic States, including the problem of citizenship.
In EU-Russian relations who do you think leads the game? Is the game being
played at the expense of smaller nations? Or we have a say in things and our
view is taken into consideration?
From the geopolitical point of view, Russia's present position is much more favorable than that of its Western counterparts, first of all because of its energy resources. Of course, the small countries like Estonia don't lead the game. Tallinn has a say in some questions, but the "big brothers" like Brussels or Washington still have much more influence.
Has Estonia been successful defending its interests in the EU?
Estonian diplomats are really good professionals, they are well appreciated in the Western Europe and the USA, but their ability to defend Estonian interests is quite limited.
Articles of the AIA are quite provocative. What do you say to those critics
who claim that your analyses are not respectable enough?
It's about the philosophy of journalism. From its very beginning, journalism included some portion of healthy provocation. It is a legitimate and welcome part of our, your and my, work until that moment, when it turns to be a clear falsification of facts.
Socialist member of Estonian Caucasus in European parliament Andres Tarand
said about your article that it reminded him of KGB operation? Do you
interact with different secret services, including FSB, in your work?
As for my possible contacts with the FSB – it's a real joke. Belief in the so-called "conspiracy theory" is the first attribute of the typical Soviet way of thinking. Unfortunately, some people in Estonia still don't believe that a journalist in the 'Free World' may and must have and express his or her independent point of view, no matter whether the politicians like it or not.
AIA STAFF ANSWERS
AIA was established in February 2005 as a commercial enterprise specializing in gathering and analysis of information on security issues, geopolitics, and macroeconomics of Eurasia.
Initially, one of the main divisions of the agency was focusing on gathering and analyzing information on the key personages in the countries of the region, in such spheres as security, diplomacy, internal politics, and economy.
In May 2005 the AIA website was launched to partially publish the work of the AIA employees.
The AIA founder and head is Michel Elbaz, a private businessman, and the expert in the issue of regional security. He previously participated in a series of media and consulting projects on the issues of security in the Middle East and in Central Asia. Before the creation of AIA, Michel Elbaz worked in the Middle East, in the countries of Central Asia, and also in France, and in Russia, fulfilling a number of missions.
AIA staff is composed of journalists, experts, and government officials. In order to prevent any possible trouble, or for the reasons of personal security, the major part of the AIA staff is using pseudonyms.
Ministries of Foreign Affairs, and presidential administrations of several countries in Central Asia, in the Baltic States, and in Central Europe confidentially cooperate with AIA.
Some have claimed that your writers use pseudonyms. Is there a real Simon
Araloff?
Simon Araloff does really exist. As one may see from his texts on the AIA website, he has his particular style of writing, and specializes in relations between the EU and the Eastern-European states (in particular, Russia). For service-related reasons he has to use a pseudonym.
Can you briefly tell us about the background of the AIA. What is the main
area of your work?
The AIA agency specializes on covering of events from the sphere of geopolitics, security and macroeconomics in the countries of Eurasia. In the sphere of internal politics, AIA's main project is devoted to the monitoring of pre-election campaigns, the process of voting and its foreign policy consequences in the states of the region.
Besides, the agency makes a stress on the little-known aspects of the situation on the local and on the regional level. AIA pays special attention to activity of the secret services, and their former employees.
Who funds the AIA?
Michel Elbaz.
How many people work for the AIA or contribute to your group?
Main body of the AIA staff consists of several experts (including the technical staff). A number of journalists, experts, and government officials are working with us on a freelance basis. Each and every AIA expert has his own confidential sources in the region or country, where he lives or works.
Where is the headquarter of AIA?
AIA central office is situated in one of the western countries. AIA representatives work in the EU countries, in the South Caucasus, in Central Asia, in Russia, in Turkey, and in Israel.
Can you tell us about your own background a bit? Where are you from?
As a rule, the AIA employees are the natives or the citizens of the countries from the regions they are covering. To become AIA employee one should perfectly know and use at least one Eurasian language.
What is the info network of AIA? Where do you get your info?
AIA uses materials from electronic and printed mass media; books, specialized periodicals, academic editions, officially published governmental documents, and public archives from different countries. AIA collects information in the framework of various political, academic, and commercial events (press-conferences, symposia, seminars, exhibitions, fairs). Furthermore, AIA’s highly professional staff uses its sources in governmental bodies, and in commercial and academic circles of the countries in the specified region.
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