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Ilham Aliyev
mortally afraid of revolution |
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The massive campaign of "exposures" and arrests of civil servants in Azerbaijan several days prior to the elections is having a bad impact in the West on the image of the President of this country, Ilham Aliyev. Was there really a plot against the authority prepared in Azerbaijan or was it an attempt to get even between the players inside the ruling clan? Did Aliyev act on his own initiative or was he provoked from the outside? The answers to these questions are becoming more and more clear.
The Plot Thickens ...
Mass arrests and resignations have shaken Azerbaijan, as political intensity approaches its apogee – the parliamentary elections on November, 6. Azerbaijan authorities state that a revolt was being prepared in the republic, headed by the former ex-chairman of Parliament, Rasul Guliev. For the last several days "heads were rolling", as leading Azerbaijani officials were dismissed, and some of them were arrested on charges of involvement in plotting against the state. It all started on October 18, when the former Minister of Finance, Fikret Yusifov, made "a voluntary confession" about preparing a plot against "the legal leadership of the republic." A wave of arrests followed immediately. Among the arrested persons were: the president of the "AzPerol" oil company, Rafiq Aliyev, his brother, former Economic Development minister, Farhad Aliyev, and the Minister of Health of the Azerbaijan Republic, Ali Insanov. The "plot", as authorities declared, was headed by the exiled oligarch, Rasul Guliev, who tried to return to the country on October, 17.
Guliev should have arrived at the Baku airport from the USA where he lived recently. Authorities, however, refused to authorize the landing of a chartered plane of a disgraced oligarch, and the day before, they arrested hundreds of activists of the Democratic Party, many of whom were the relatives and former associates of Guliev. At any rate the plane in which he was a passenger, landed on October 17 in Simferopol, where he was arrested by local law enforcement, later released, and then took off for London.
According to the version of the special services of Azerbaijan, in August of this year Guliev contacted Yusifov and suggested to him that he organize a revolution in Azerbaijan. Rafiq and
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| Farhad Aliev |
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Farhad Aliyev should have supervised this revolution. The revolution was supposed to be financed from the joint resources pool of the "putsch" members. Insanov gave $200 thousand, Farhad Aliyev - 100 thousand euro. As usually happens in such cases to all conspirators, security found the large sums of money, they " repented" and started to testify against each other and against Guliev..
Fear Makes Mountains Out of Molehills
This entire story is full of ambiguities. Is there a real threat of revolution hanging over the present regime in Azerbaijan? Are those arrests an attempt to intimidate the opposition?
The fact drawing the most attention is that among the arrested and disgraced figures there are many representatives of Aliyev's ruling clan. All of them are representatives of "the old guard", truly serving the father of the present President, powerful Heydar Aliyev, and protecting the interests of the Nakhichevan clan from which Aliyev's family came. On one hand, the leaders of the clan have good reasons for discontent with the present President, who is considered "his father's little boy" and until now cannot wash away the doubtful reputation of a "playboy". From the very beginning of his coming to the "throne", Ilham Aliyev was considered by the "elders of the clan" a provisional figure.
Farhad Aliyev, on the contrary, enjoys a certain popularity among the ruling elite, which is afraid of "velvet" or not "velvet" revolution. It is known that he adheres to innovative views and assists supporters of reforms in the country. During certain moments his flirtation with the opposition (for example, a demonstrative appearance of Farhad in an orange tie at formal receptions) began to disturb the President's coterie. Rumors went out to the ruling circles that Farhad expects to get the post of Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, which would open a way to authority for him. This circumstance frightened Ilham Aliyev.
Financial "levers", which the Aliyev brothers possess, must also be taken into account. Rafiq Aliyev heads the AzPetrol Company, which holds 70 per cent of the retail trade in oil products in the republic. AzPetrol owns the company, Azertrans, which is engaged in the transportation of oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan.
At the same time, "the plot theory" loses its persuasiveness for another reason. Ali Insanov, one of the main participants of the "putsch", belongs to the "Yerevan clan", while the natives of Armenia are traditionally at enmity with Nakhichevan clan. And it is rather doubtful that Nakhichevans would allow "Armenians" to press them on a rudder of the state.
The organizers of "revolution", to put it mildly, did not get on and constantly attacked each other with mutual recriminations for corruption, money-grubbing and designing intrigues. For example, two of the characters in this drama, the Minister of Education, Misir Mardanov, and his colleague, the Minister of Labour, Ali Nagiev, who are also accused of plotting, are considered irreconcilable enemies in the government. It is hard to imagine that they could work together against Ilham Aliyev.
And finally "the putsch-team" would hardly risk carrying out a revolution since they realize that they would be subjected to ostracism by the international community.
Most likely, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Apparently, Guliev really tried to plan some intrigues and to pay off officials in order to weaken Ilham Aliyev’s position inside his clan and the government. It is easy to do, taking into account that Guliev is closely connected with Nakhichevans and possesses levers of financial influence. However, these contrivances hardly seriously threaten Ilham Aliyev. It is possible to assume that he used the information on contacts between officials and Guliev to get rid of potential competitors and to strengthen his position in the clan.
A Good Aliyev is a Weak Aliyev
His actions would look logical, if not for one "insignificant" circumstance - the upcoming elections. Today Aliyev's positions are strong enough. All the polls show that the opposition has no chance to win the elections. It is typical that several thousand people only attended the demonstration, which the Democratic Party organized for the arrival of its leader, Rasul Guliev.
On the contrary, present repressions can and already have led to the opposite result: Aliyev’s image suffered a blow in the opinion of the West, and the opposition cheered up and called for a boycott of the elections.
Such a reaction was quite predictable, and Aliyev should have expected it. So, what or who forced him to resort to repressions at such an inappropriate time?
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| President Ilham Aliyev meets Director of the Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Army General Sergey Lebedev |
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Here we should pay attention to the visits of the heads of the Russian special services, which were concurrent with the course of the "revolt plotting". The Azerbaijani independent mass media specified that mass arrests coincided with a meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Sergey Lebedev, Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR. Before him Baku was visited by the executive secretary of the CIS, Vladimir Rushailo, who was accompanied by the representatives of the Russian special services. Baku's "Independent newspaper" directly writes: the Russian Intelligence helped Aliyev "to uncover the plot".
The secretary general of the Azeri Democratic Party, Sardar Jalalogly, also put a similar assumption forward. In his opinion, "Moscow and Baku were acting in coordination in this case."
This version looks very logical because of Moscow's current policy. The Kremlin attempts to try everything to avoid two scenarios: the coming to power of a pro-American opposition in Baku and Aliyev's re-orientation toward Washington. The first one is highly improbable, but the second is more than realistic. The best way to prevent it is to weaken Aliyev's position in the opinion of the West, and simultaneously to make him completely dependent on Russia. For this purpose the Russian special services easily initiated the "plotting" case, and convinced the weak President of Azerbaijan that henceforth he can and should rely only on them.
Aliyev, being mortally afraid of revolution, swallowed the bait...
Related items:
Rasul Guliev - The Leading Azerbaijani Oppositionist Who Lost Twice (17.10.2005)
Etibar Mamedov - Eternal Oppositionist Without Any Chance to Win (03.10.05)
Ali Kerimli - Caucasian Revolutionary of the Pro-Western Orientation (28.09.05)
Lala Hajiyeva - the Female Face of the Azerbaijani Opposition (16.09.05)
Isa Gambar - Leader of the Largest Opposition Bloc (12.09.05)
Ilham Aliyev: Might-Have-Been Soviet Diplomat Turned into a Caspian Oil Owner (10.09.05)
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