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30.09.2005
The New Order to be Born on Caucasus
Can Karpat, AIA Turkish section
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku Railway  
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku Railway - the way to the New Order  
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku Railway projects are capable of change the balance on Caucasus. While relations between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia are developing rapidly, these projects become also an essential common denominator between them. The fact that Armenia has territorial demands from all of these three countries just adds to the common denominators that exist between these countries, Turkish Diplomatik Gozlem reports. AIA brings our readers the most interesting parts of the article.

The European Union, the United Nations and the United States of America approve the strategy of Ankara, Tbilisi and Baku, which consists of “ejecting the mischievous”, the newspaper notes. Yerevan and Moscow had long claimed that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline project would not be carried out. Now they reiterate the same argument but connected with the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku Railway project.
However, Armenia cannot rely any more on those, whom it used to trust. When the President of the European Commission Transportation and Energy Department had visited Baku on the 15th of November last year, he stated that the European Union supported the construction of this railway, and noted: “We have already examined this project in detail to provide financial aid. However, we should find other financial sources than those of the European Union indeed”.
Although the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vartan Oskanyan applied to the European Commission Deputy-President and the Commissioner responsible for transportation, Jacques Barrot with a letter and explained herewith Yerevan’ point of view on the issue, it did not really work. The European Union does not care about Yerevan’s complaints.
Not only the European Union, but also Kazakhstan is not sensible to Armenia’s anxieties. Kazakhstan longs for multidimensional oil transport, though for the moment, it can export its oil only through the Russian territory. If Kazakhstan joins the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project, it will gain three advantages. First, it will make possible to find a new itinerary of oil transportation. Secondly, it will be less dependent on Russia. And thirdly, these oil itineraries apart, there will be a possibility that a Chinese itinerary will emerge. And the latter is a positive factor, which will lessen the economic dependence of Kazakhstan. In this regard, external dangers and political risks will also decrease.
Meanwhile, the Georgian-Turkish Business Forum gathered in Georgia. Over 90 Turkish companies participated in that Forum. And recently, the model of the new Tbilisi Airport, which will be built by Turkish companies, was presented to the public.
The mutual trade volume between Turkey and Georgia, which reached 35 million dollars by 2005, is expected to rise up to 6 billion dollars in three years as the Georgian Prime Minister, Zurab Nogaideli and the Turkish State Minister responsible for trade, Kursad Tuzmen estimate.
In the New Order, which is emerging in Caucasus, there is no place for Armenia. Armenia is expelled. Consequently, Armenia cannot find any other alternative that Russian patronage, Diplomatik Gozlem concludes. 

Related items:
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan: Pipeline of Friendship or War? (15.09.2005)
Eurasian Battle for Transporting Communications (09.09.2005)
Turks Predict Armenia's Political Bankruptcy (17.08.2005 )
Turkey's Battle for the Caspian Sea (15.08.2005)
Armenia Pushes Turkey Away From the Kars - Akhalkalaki Project (10.08.2005)
The Russian Blockade of Armenia (06.08.2005 )

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