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| Jaroslav Kachinski casts his vote |
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The results of the yesterday's parliamentary elections in Poland have shown two major points: unreliability of polls and full confusion of the Polish citizens.
Victory of the Right Without Crash of the Left
The results of elections to the Sejm and the Senate (according to the data from September, 26, 04:30 Poland's time) have once again shown the extreme unreliability of the polls. Just one week ago parliamentary elections in Germany have turned a total fiasco for the local sociologists. And in Poland complex technics of defining the moods of the people again appeared to be not very effective. However, as against Germany, in Poland they managed to figure out at least the the main tendency of the voting - the change of moods for the benefit of the right camp. In the rest the difference between the predicted and the real results appeared rather significant.
Certainly, the biggest surprise became a low turnout of the voters to the polling districts - only 41 % of voters (a bit more than 12 of 30 million voters). The probable explanation of the phenomenon will be given later, while it is necessary to note that sociologists turnout 60 % of voters and, thus, have committed a huge mistake, having failed to predict this phenomena.
The second surprise became a victory of the "Law and Justice " (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc - PiS) party, which received 25.7 % of votes – 144 seats (by the data on September, 26, 04:30 Poland's time). Some days prior to the elections local sociologists predicted to it from 23 % up to 27 % of the votes, and later even over 30 %, however, its ability to outstrip the main competitor, a "Civic Platform" (" Platforma Obywatelska " - PO) party was doubted by many sociologists (PO was predicted to receive from 33 % up to 38 %). As a result, however, "Civic Platform" got only 23.3 % - 117 seats in the parliament, that is more than 2 % less then "Law and Justice", and took the second place at the winners list.
On the forth place, also as a surprise of sociologists and commentators, appeared the Democratic Left Alliance (Sojuz Lewicy Demokratycznej - SLD).
The Alliance which was at power up to the end of the last week, according to all polls without exception, was promptly loosing the trust of the voters. Several days ago it was predicted to get only 6 % of the votes, and many commentators in general declared, that SLD will not even manage to pass the electoral barrier (5 %). However, the communist party's successors not only have coped with this task, but also got 10.8 % of of votes (48 seats), becoming the fourth political power in the country. Remarkable as well is the fact, that the extremist party "Self Defense" ("Samoobrona"), standing on the frankly xenofobic and "eurosceptic" position collected more votes than it was predicted - 13.3 % instead of 12 % (75 seats).
And as for the conservative Catholic League of Polish Families (Liga Polskich Rodzin - LPR), on the contrary, received less than it was predicted - 7.78 % of votes (35 seats) instead of 9 %. The Polish Peasant Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe - PSL) which has passed an electoral barrier with 7 % of votes (37 seats) instead of 3%-4 %, also let down the sociologists. Perhaps, the only exact prediction was the fiasco of the Polish Social Democrats (Socjaldemokracja Polska - SdPl) and Democratic Party (Partia Demokratyczna - Demokraci.pl). They both did not pass the electoral barrier.
In this connection it is necessary to note, that the Polish citizens living abroad also took part in yesterday's voting. The number of such owners of the right to vote (most of all in the USA where the 6 millon large Polish community lives) totaled worldwide about 2.5 million. At the moment of finishnig of this article the final results of their voting was yet unknown, however it was clear, that at 12 million voted in the Poland active voting of the Poles abroad theoretically could change the declared results. However, it was also clear that the Poles living in America will vote for the right camp supporting development of the relations with the USA.
Left is Bad, but Right is Frightening
Despite of all the surprises as the low turnover, the results sharply contrasting with the forecasts of sociologists, actually nothing surprising has happened. Even before the elections we wrote that it is not that the Poles love the Right so much, its that they got tired from the Left. The whole four years of Democratic Left Alliance's rule were accompanied by loud political and corruption scandals, changes of the key political figures, growing unemployment and disappointment from process of integration into the European Union. The only real alternative to the ex-communists appeared to be the centre-right conservatives. However, they frighten a significant part of the population with their ideas of liberal economy. Abundantly clear is that under their rule the social programs for the population will be cut down, the state infrastructures will be privatized, and the large business will receive most of the dividends from this process. The problem is, quoting the wors of Jan Rokita, the leader of the PO, that the majority of the Poles wishes to live as in the USA, but refuse to abandon the habits developed under the Communists. These habits are, for example, high welfare protection, education and medicine free-of-charge, and also low standards of work. These habits prevent many Poles from supporting the Right. And that is the reason for the low turnover at the polling stations.
The same reasons explain Jaroslav Kachinski's (PiS) victory over Jan Rokita (PO) inside the the right camp itself. In this case, the Poles simply have chosen the lesser of two evils. The matter is that Rokita and his party unequivocally adhere to the liberal economic ideas of the free market, privatization, encouragement of the large business and a flat 15 % rate for income tax. As against them, Kachinski and his PiS offer the better welfare protection, and also the traditional Christian values multiplied by fair "eurocare". As it appeared, such a platform attracted the majority of the Poles who have come yesterday to vote.
A Little Forecast
As it was shown above, political forecasts are extremely unreliable. Nevertheless, it is impossible to stay away from political forecasting on two major issues: who will be the future Polish president and what will be the structure of the ruling coalition.
The presidential elections in Poland are sheduled for October, 9. Currently the indisputable leadership in the pre-election race belongs to the candidate from "Civic Platform" Donald Tusk (more than 50 % of votes, according to the last polls). The Polish commentators assume that the voters would like not to give the charge over Premier's and President's post to one party simultaneously. Besides, during all of the campaign Tusk makes much better impression, rather than his main opponent from "Law and Justice" Lech Kachinski. Therefore, despite of yesterday's PiS victory, Tusk most likely will become the President.
As for the structure of the future government, before the elections, when Rokita was predicted to be the Premier, it was supposed that "Civic Platform" will also receive the portfolios of the Minister of Defence and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, whereas "Law and Justice" will be satisfied with a portfolio of the Minister of Finance and several other, less significant posts in the future government. At the moment, in the view of the results of yesterday's elections, it is possible to assume, that Rokita will get the post of vice-Premier, and also, following his inclination to foreign policy, a portfolio of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Related items:
Brief Information About the Participants (24.09.05)
Kaczynski Brothers: Movie Stars That Turned Politicians (23.09.05)
Jan Rokita: The Triumph of the Politician - Intellectual (22.09.05)
Warsaw Consolidates the Countries of Eastern and Central Europe (21.09.05)
On the Threshold of a Right-Centrist Revolution (03.09.05)
The Great Game for Poland (15.05.05)
Poland's political parties:
Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej – PO)
Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc – PiS)
Self-Defence (Samoobrona Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej)
League of Polish Families (Liga Polskich Rodzin – LPR)
Democratic Left Alliance (Sojuz Lewicy Demokratycznej – SLD)
Polish Peasants Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – PSL)
Polish Social Democrats (Socjaldemokracja Polska – SdPl)
Democratic Party (Partia Demokratyczna – Demokraci.pl)
German Minority (Mniejszosc Niemiecka)
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