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| The present vice-speaker of the Sejm, the head of PO Donald Tusk (m) running for presidency |
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The Polish republic stands on the threshold of two big events - elections to the Parliament and presidential elections. In less than a month, on September 25, citizens of the country will determine the future structure of the Sejm and the Senate. Two weeks after that, on October 9, the new President will be named. But at the moment the outcome of both elections is practically predetermined. Since May, according to the polls, Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) is leading in both campaigns. The right centrists are preparing for the occupation of Warsaw's political Olympus.
The Right Centrists are Coming Back
Most of the people I meet in the streets of Warsaw today speak about the future revolution. As they say, the discredited Democratic Left Alliance (Sojuz Lewicy Demokratycznej - SLD) - the successor to the former Communist party of Poland, will be replaced by the right-centrist Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska - PO). And this party's victory in two competitions at once - both in the parliamentary, and presidential elections is practically guaranteed.
The reason for the change in the priorities of a great number of voters is not any special popularity of the PO (at the moment the polls predict that only about 25% of voters will choose it), but in the disappointment of the masses with the social democrats. Four years ago, in 2001, when the SLD came to power in the country, it was perhaps the most disciplined party having broad support of the voters (41% of ballots - 16% more than PO is predicted to have today). After an amazing victory over the right block, Solidarity Electoral Action (Akcja Wyborcza Solidarnocs - AWS), the left spoke about an historical revanche and declared the intention to remain in power for many years. But the reality appeared not so shiny for them. For the first three years in power, the representatives of the SLD managed to make all conceivable and inconceivable mistakes. Their partners in the ruling coalition, the Labor Union (Unia Pracy-UP) and the Polish Peasants' Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe - PSL) abandoned them. The Prime Minister, Leshek Miller, was compelled to resign in May 2004. The Prime Minister - technocra Marek Belka, brought some lull, but he appointed people who had no connection to the party to key posts in the government. Today social democrats from the SLD will be unlikely to receive 8% of the ballots. That means the complete and final failure of the party. One of its representatives in Parliament and three of his former colleagues are involved in large corruption scandals and in the near future may be thrown into jail. This, certainly, does not add any popularity to the SLD.
Meanwhile, as the present political situation in the country develops, the right centrists have not been idle during the last four years, from the moment of AWS' defeat in the previous parliamentary elections. Shortly before the victory of the left in the elections of 2001, the new party - Civic Platform (PO) appeared on the right side of the Polish political spectrum. Its founders were the well- known Polish "triumvirate": the former Minister of Finance and Affairs, Andrzej Olechowski, the former marshal (speaker) of the Sejm, Maciej Plazynski, and the present vice-speaker of the Sejm, Donald Tusk. During the last parliamentary session the first two politicians abandoned the new party. Tusk remained and headed the PO - today's variant of the classical liberal - conservative party built on the American model, and expressing the interests of Polish business circles. Its political agenda is a typically neo-conservative one. Among its basic postulates - reduction of the surtax to 15 %, privatization and demonopolization of the economy, increase of the private sector's share in the sphere of public health services, reduction of the trade unions' powers, and also reduction in the number of Sejm members from 460 to 230.
As for foreign policy, Tusk and his colleagues in the PO are clearly positioning theselves as faithful allies of the United States, including everything that concerns the struggle against international terrorism. For the last few years Donald Tusk has repeatedly criticized the position of the governments of the West-European countries, especially those of Germany and France, which, as he said, instead of struggling against international terrorism, hope to remove its threat from themselves by criticising the USA. Simultaneously, the leader of the PO called for an internal reorganization of Polish society into one closer to the American model . As he said, Poles want to live as Americans, but they can’t refuse the burden of heritage from the communistic society. The desirable effect can be reached only when political and economic mechanisms are changed, the leader of the Polish liberal conservatives declared. His more independent position towards the management of the European Community on the questions of external and financial policy is a result of his pro-American position and criticism of the West-European members of the EU.
For him the interest of Polish financial circles is the determining factor. These circles show appreciable discontent with the EU's policy of crediting and internal export, and also with the economic arrangement of Paris and Berlin with Moscow behind Warsaw's back. For this reason Donald Tusk has shown a readiness to actively contact the candidate for the post of chancellor of Germany from the Christian democrats (CDU), Angela Merkel. Merkel, promising not to cooperate with the Russians on the Poles account, was warmly accepted by the leader of PO during her visit to the Polish capital, which took place last week.
Pre-election Arithmetic
Today more than 30 % of the Polish voters are ready to support Donald Tusk's candidacy in the presidential elections. His opponents in the struggle for the presidency are the speaker of Sejm from SLD, Wlodzimierz Cimosiewics, former Minister for Foreign Affairs and present mayor of Warsaw from Law and Justice Party (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc - PiS), Lech Kaczynski, and also the independent candidate, professor Zbigniew Religa. However, no one is in Tusk's league. Thus, if the parity of forces does not change up to October 9, a carrying out of a second round of presidential elections is quite possible, in which, according to all forecasts, Tusk will win. His victory would put an end to the ten year rule of the SLD representative – President Aleksander Kwasniewski.
The PO also expects success in the parliamentary elections, where, as it was mentioned above, it is predicted to get about 25 % of the ballots. In this case, the post of Prime Minister will be filled by the present chairman of the party's faction in the Sejm, Jan Maria Wladyslaw Rokita. The most probable PO ally in the future coalition is the right-centrist Law and Justice Party. It expects to receive about 23 %, and may even outrun the PO in the amount of seats in Parliament. In this event the Prime Minister's post will be occupied by Jaroslaw Kaczynski - head of PiS parliamentary faction and the twin- brother of the candidate for the presidency, Lech Kaczynski. However, the structure of the future ruling coalition will hardly change because of that. In its structure, the PO and the PiS can also participate with the League of Polish Families (Liga Polskich Rodzin), frequently mentioned as a Catholic nationalist party.
Related items:
Angela Merkel Promises Foreign Policy Change (22.08.2005)
From Communist Leader to Opponent of Moscow (08.08.2005)
The Guardians of Europe: Polish secret services protect the borders of the European Union (22.05.2005)
The Great Game for Poland (16.05.2005)
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