Against the background of scandals surrounding around attacks on Poles in Moscow and violations by Russian planes of the air space of Estonia and Finland, the Russian leadership, apparently, is going to provoke one more loud scandal - this time in its relations with Latvia. Yesterday, on August 17, an unnamed source in the Kremlin declared the readiness of the administration of President Putin to impose economic sanctions against Latvia. This is Moscow's answer to its obvious loss in a diplomatic duel with Riga… Latvia and "Other Countries "Under Fire
Latvia and "Other Countries "Under Fire
The Kremlin does not exclude the option of imposing economic sanctions on Latvia should the country continue to infringe upon the rights of its Russian-speaking population. An unnamed representative of the administration of the President of Russia informed the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS about its intentions yesterday. As he said, similar strict measures can be applied to "other countries" which, however, have remained unlisted. One does not need special imagination to guess that he meant first of all Estonia and Lithuania, and also neighboring Poland, which is experiencing the sharpest crisis in its relations with Russia.
How to Hide a Defeat?
Therefore, a formal pretext for the economic blackmail of Latvia is a "limiting of the rights of the Russian-speaking population" of this Baltic country. However, this problem has more than a ten-year history, and the leadership of the EU, wherein Latvia is a member, is actively engaged in trying to solve it. That is why mentioning it as a reason for such sharp steps of Moscow, represents a not too successful attempt of the Kremlin to veil the true reason for its anger. This reason is covered up due to the sad fact that Russian diplomats, despite all their efforts, are losing to their Baltic and, in particular, to their Latvian colleagues influence in the future of this huge region lying between the Baltic and the Black Seas .
A Slap in the Face of the Russian President
The victory of the Baltic countries has already been evident during the past year when Russia, despite all its efforts, could not block their induction into NATO and the European Community. The accommodation of military planes of the North Atlantic Alliance into the territory of Lithuania, which followed, only strengthened the feeling of despair in the Kremlin. In the same year, 2004, Russia received from three Baltic countries a series of some resounding slaps in the face, when 8 Russian diplomats accused of counterespionage in spying activity were expelled by the local services.
And, finally, before Russia's eyes, on its western border, the process of creation of a powerful pro-American bloc was completed within the last year. Its structure included Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The culmination of this process came in May of the current year when the American President, George W. Bush, came to Riga for a meeting with the leaders of the Baltic countries. While still in Washington before taking off for Riga he declared to the press his support of the position of the Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians, as their countries have been occupied by the Soviet Union for five decades. The Vice-President of the European Commission, Günter Verheugen,
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The Vice-President of European Commission Günter Verheugen |
who directly demanded repentance from Russian, supported Bush. Statements of high-ranking politicians, both American and European, became the next serious success of Baltic diplomacy and, accordingly, a failure of the diplomacy of Moscow.
After Bush's return to America, the Kremlin, to its horror, found out that the situation in the Baltics continues to develop an even worse script for the Russians. On July 23, the US Congress followed the lead of Bush and Verheugen and officially demanded that Moscow recognize the occupation of the Baltics during the Soviet period. At approximately the same time, the Parliament of Estonia (Riikogu) refused to approve an agreement with Russia about the frontier. Literally one month before that, the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Lavrov, surrounded by television cameras assured president Putin, that, unlike the Latvians, the Estonians would sign the agreement. However, Riikogu made the opposite decision. Lavrov's next difficulty came up a week later, when the carefully prepared visit of Putin to Finland ended with scandal. During the final press conference, the Finnish president, Tarja Halonen, openly expressed support of her Baltic colleagues concerning the recognition of the Soviet occupation and the frontier issue.
The Baltics are Worried About the Level of Democracy in Belarus
At the same time, in early August, in Vilnius there was another important event in the arena of regional policy - the meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.
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| The Foreign Minister of Latvia Artis Pabriks |
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The Russians paid attention to this forum for it was of interest to them, first of all, because plans for the democratization of Belarus were discussed in it. It was entirely realized in Moscow that, therefore, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were officially joined in the forefront of the struggle for the future of Belarus, whose supporters until that time included only the USA and Poland. The real opportunity for the recurrence of the Ukrainian scenario of a "Velvet revolution" loomed on the horizon. And the Russian and Belarus special services, already working round the clock under extreme pressure, would scatter their forces even more, tracing the activity of Belarus opposition in all three Baltic countries.
The Demands for Reparations and Russian Foreign Investments
However, the list of "Baltic problems" of Russian diplomacy does not come to an end. Simultaneously with the statement of Halonen and the meeting of the ambassadors in Vilnius, the Latvian leadership declared the beginning of a special commission project , which would count up the economic losses from the Soviet occupation of Latvia. According to preliminary calculations, the estimated sum of reparations, which Latvia would demand from Russia, would reach a billion dollars for each year of occupation. That is, in total, about $50 billion. For comparison, the annual budget of Russia is about $100 billion dollars, and the size of its "stabilization fund " – up to $20 billion. Estonia and Lithuania could follow Latvia's example. But the most unpleasant fact for Moscow is that the Baltic lobby in the US Congress is ready to support these demands on reparations. And if Russia refuses to pay, the American authorities could seize Russian funds in American banks, and also demand a similar step from their European partners. Just the mention of such a possibility in the press would have a painful impact on Russian diplomacy.
The Breakthrough in the Caucasian Direction
Yet one more event necessary to be mentioned in this context, is the official two-day visit to Riga of the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan, General - Colonel Safar Abiev, which ended yesterday. Latvian high-ranking politicians called the visit "extremely successful". In its framework the agreement "On Cooperation between the Ministries of Defense of Azerbaijan and Latvia in the Security Sphere" was signed. According to this document, in the near future Azerbaijani military servicemen will start training in Latvia. Cadets are to arrive at the educational center of the Engineering Corps in Âdaþi, and also to the center of military divers in Liepâja. Russian analysts correctly see in this the next step on the way to creation of a regional bloc between the Baltic and the Black Sea states under the aegis of NATO and the USA. It is necessary to remember that, in parallel, the cooperation of Latvia with Georgia also is developing. The president of Latvia, Freiberga, visited the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, in May, 2005.
Expecting Diplomatic Disaster
Additional nervousness in Moscow's behavior signifies comprehension of an approaching diplomatic disaster in Germany. The predicted victory of the Christian Democrat union (CSU) in the forthcoming elections to the German Parliament (Bundestag), could lead to the curtailing of the present pro-Moscow diplomacy of chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. As a result, Berlin is almost certain to join supporters of the creation of a regional bloc between the Baltic and Black Sea states, the structure of which in the long term will also join Belarus.
When the Chess Player Loses His Mind…
There is no doubt that the abovementioned complex geopolitical process indicates in general a grandiose defeat of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In such a situation the Kremlin may become similar to the hysterical chess player who suddenly realizes, that his opponent has outplayed him, and, therefore, decides to sweep away all the pieces from the chessboard. The Russian President Putin and his coterie have already shown their propensity to aggression in disputed situations both on the internal, and international scene. Among the examples are the well-known "Khodorkovsky's case", the constant deliberate violations of the air space of the Baltics and Finland, attacks on Poles in Moscow and the large-scale maneuvers of the Russian airborne armies at the Latvian border (20.07.05).
Thus, present Russian threats of applying economic sanctions on Latvia and "other countries" perfectly fit the behavior profile of the Kremlin. This time, most likely, it may try to use its only really working weapon left – the monopoly on energy carriers and power deliveries. As a result of the inflation of world prices for energy carriers, the gas infrastructure of Latvia is already close to crisis. The discontinuance of gas deliveries from Russia is fraught with serious problems in gas distribution in such large cities as Riga and Daugavpils. Finally, undermining the Latvian still stable economy can hinder the process of its integration into the all-European economic sphere. The negative consequences of this process, both for Latvia, and for the entire European Union as a whole, are obvious…
Related items:
Russia's Air Forces Threaten the Baltic Region(14.08.2005)
From Communist Leader to Opponent of Moscow (08.08.2005)
Russian Espionage Activity Against Estonia Continues (08.08.2005)
Russia Prepares for Economic Conquest of the Baltic Countries (07.08.2005)
Lukashenko's War on Poles (04.08.2005)
The Baltic Countries - The Monthly Review (29.05.2005)
The Guardians of Europe: Polish secret service ((24.05.2005)
The Great Game for Poland (16.05.2005)
Intelligence Activity of the Russian Secret Services in Baltic Countries (23.04.2005)
Chronicle of Russian espionage in the Baltic countries (20.04.2005)
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