Authorities in Azerbaijan accuse the biggest opposition party in the Republic, and the Armenian secret service of planning a coup d'etat. The USA demands that President Aliyev to dismiss his entire entourage. In case he refuses to do so, Aliyev will be deprived of his power by means of a "Velvet revolution." The Azerbaijani leader, in his turn, secretly keeps his links with the mafia, and hopes to get help from Russian specialists…
"Armenian agents prepare a revolution"
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| Ruslan Bashirli |
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On the 3rd of August, 2005, the Azerbaijani police detained Ruslan Bashirli, the leader of "Yeni Fikir" (New Thinking) the youth wing of the leading opposition party National Front of Azerbaijan (NFA). The authorities accused him of an attempt to plan a takeover, ordered by the Armenian secret service. According to the statement of the General Prosecutor's Office, on 28th and 29th of July, Bashirli and one of his supporters, Osman Alimuradov, arrived in Tbilisi to meet with representatives of the Georgian democratic forces. This trip allegedly was the task of the NFA leader, Ali Kerimli.
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Ali Kerimli |
In videocassette that Osman Alimuradov gave to the office of the Prosecutor General shows someone named Vardan taking part in the meeting on the Georgian side, and giving Bashirli $2000 as an advance fee for cooperation. Doing so, Vardan openly declares that he represents the interests of the Armenian secret services, and promises to pay Bashirli another $20,000. Moreover, Vardan threatens to publish their conversation in case Bashirli rejects his proposal. The General Prosecutor's Office also holds testimony by Bashirli, confessing that he was acting at the request of the United States National Democracy Institute, and had received an order from the NFA leader to prepare a revolution in Azerbaijan.
Immediately after these events, a campaign against the NFA began in Azerbaijan. On the 4th of August, officials from the Ministry of Justice declared, "the activity of parties, which are sponsored from abroad, will be prevented." Pro-governmental politicians issued a demand to ban the NFA. Furthermore, mass media and well-known figures linked to the regime joined the attack on the biggest opposition party. In the light of Bashirli's case, official printed editions reported that the NFA leader gave an interview to the Armenian nationalist "Erkir Media TV." In addition, some newspapers published information about "the Armenian agents, who prepare revolution" in Azerbaijan. On the 5th of August, unknown persons showered rotten eggs on the NFA central office in Baku, and five days later organized a pogrom in the party's branch in Lenkoran, located in the South-East of Azerbaijan.
The first reaction of the opposition to all this was total bewilderment. "Yeni Fikir" representatives tried to clear Bashirli, saying, "he was drunk, and did not know that his interlocutor was Armenian." Later on there was a version according to which "something was added" to Bashirli's glass of cognac.
The Provocation of the Secret Service
It is becoming more and more obvious that the "Bashirli case" is a frame-up by the secret service. The idea that one of most important leaders of the opposition would commit political suicide for a mere $2000, or even for $20,000, is an absurd. The fact that Bashirli's companion has filmed everything with a concealed camera, testifies to the participation of the
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| Demonstration of the Azeri oppositional Azadlig movement |
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Azerbaijani secret service in the plot. Besides, on August, 7th, the representative of Armenian broadcasting company, Erkir Media TV, announced that the head of NFA refused to give an interview. Simultaneously, the speaker of the U.S. National Democracy Institute categorically denied the assertions of the authorities regarding its participation in preparations for a "Velvet Revolution" in Azerbaijan.
In principle, such a methods are not new for Aliyev's regime. In 1998 activists of the Democratic party of Azerbaijan (DPA) were arrested on charges of anti-state activity. The slanderous campaign against opposition journalists was launched the same year. In March, 2005, one of leading journalists of the republic, Elmar Huseynov, was killed. The circumstances of his murder are still unknown.
However, despite its obviously anti-democratic character, the ruling regime in the country is stable enough. According to the polls, Aliyev has an excellent chance to remain in power. Against this background, the obviously forged " Bashirli case," and the global campaign against the NFA, will hardly have any serious impact on the mood of the majority of Azerbaijanis. Most likely, the main effect of these events will be felt more appreciably outside the republic. First of all, it concerns the image of President Aliyev in western public opinion. So, what was the reason that forced authorities of the republic to resort to such doubtful methods?
The End of the American-Azeri Affair
First of all, Aliyev needed to distract the attention of the media from a scandal involving one of his protégés. As a result of rivalry between power structures in the republic, it became known that Lieutenant General Ramil Usubov,
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Ramil Usubov |
a protégé of the President and the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, is closely connected with criminal world. Under his patronage, a criminal group was formed and acted inside the Ministry of Internal Affairs. After the Ministry of National Security neutralized this group in March 2005, it seemed that Usubov would be removed from the post. When this did not happen, it became obvious that the President himself was connected to the mafia, or depends from it. The second reason, which induced the ruling regime to organize such a show campaign against the NFA, is in Ilham Aliyev's growing disappointment with West. Brussels and Washington displeasure with merely cosmetic reforms in Azerbaijan. Besides, the White house shows growing irritation because of Aliyev's evasive foreign policy. The Azerbaijani leader, despite numerous American requests, did not gave his consent to the placing of US military bases on the territory of the republic. Several visits by the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Baku did not bring the desired results. As a consequence, Washington has taken a hard line concerning Aliyev. The reports on former American Secretary of State, Madeline Albright's recent visit to Baku, where she informed the US ambassador Reno Harnish about the ultimatum to Aliyev. Reached the mass media. The ultimatum, if sources are correct, is simple: Aliyev must fire all of his corrupted team by August, 21, or a the "Velvet revolution " will happen. All the representatives of his "old guard," according to the ultimatum must be prevented from participating in parliamentary elections and thus provide themselves with "personal immunity."
The Hope for Moscow's Help
Apparently, and the example of Usubov is a characteristic one, Ilham Aliyev depends too much on his coterie to sacrifice it. Therefore he is going into almost open conflict with Washington, accusing the National Democratic Institute of the USA in a plot against the republic. Simultaneously, Baku calls upon Moscow for support. At the end of July, the head of President's public and political office, Ali Gasanov, declared that during November elections exit polls will be carried out not only by American, but also by Russian organizations. Such a statement is quite important, as in a certain coincidence of circumstances; the results of the exit polls can have a deciding influence on the outcome of the elections. A similar trick in Ukraine went wrong: After the Russian political technologists, using the exit polls, declared the victory of the candidate that was supported by Moscow, a "Velvet revolution" was triggered in Kiev.)
Baku's desires can be understood, the opposition newspaper, Zerkalo, writes in this connection. Russia is not too fastidious in questions of democracy, and it is easy to come to terms with it. In this connection it is quite natural that leaders of the Azerbaijan opposition have acted against the carrying out of exit polls by Russian representatives. The leader of the NFA, Ali Kerimli, has taken the most flat position against this. As he said, the authorities of the republic hope to fabricate the results of elections with the help of Moscow. Taking into account that Kerimli is the head of the largest opposition party, it may be assumed that he will become the target of "dirty" PR-actions ordered by the authorities, as in the "Bashirli case."
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