Next Sunday, the three-presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina both at state and entity levels. For those, who are not acquainted with the Bosnian political scene, these elections may seem rather complicated. It is true that from a political and administrative point of view, Bosnia-Herzegovina is one of the most complicated countries on earth. Here is a brief memento.
General data
On 1st October, some 2.736.886 registered voters will elect:
- in the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at state level), the new three members of the collegial presidency. They will also elect the 42-member Chamber of Representatives;
- in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at entity level), the 98-member Chamber of Representatives. They will also elect the 10 local assemblies. As it is known, the Muslim-Croat Federation has 10 autonomous cantons (5 Bosniak, 3 Croat and 2 ethnically mixed cantons).
- in Republika Srpska (at entity level), the President and vice presidents. They will also elect the 83-member (and mono-cameral) National Assembly.
At these presidential and general elections, some 7245 candidates from 36 parties and 8 coalitions as well as 12 independent candidates will contest. Electoral campaign has been started on 1st September.
In order to observe the elections, Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) established an Election Observation Mission (EOM), which consists of 14 core team members and 17 long-term observers from 19 OSCE participating states. OSCE also demanded the latter to second 220 short-term observers in order to observe voting, counting and the tabulation of results.
Key political parties
At these elections, the key parties will be:
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| Sulejman Tihik |
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- nationalist and Islamic Party of Democratic Action (SDA) led by Sulejman Tihic;
- liberal-cum-nationalist Party for Bosnia-Herzegovina (SzBiH) led by Haris Silajdzic;
- social democrat and multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party (SDP) led by Zlatko Lagumdzija;
- social democrat Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) led by Milorad Dodik;
- nationalist Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) led by Dragan Cavic;
- Christian democrat, conservative and nationalist Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by Dragan Covic;
- Croatian Democratic Union-1990 (HDZ-1990) led by Bozo Ljubic. This party was founded by a group of dissidents from HDZ.
At the last general elections on 5th October 2002, these parties obtained respectively 10, 6, 4, 3, 5 and 5 seats in the 42-member Chamber of Representatives of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at state level).
At the last general elections, SDA obtained 32, SzBiH 15, SDP 15 and HDZ 16 seats in the Chamber of Representatives of the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at entity level).
At the last general elections, SDS obtained 26 and SNSD 19 seats in the 83-member National Assembly of Republika Srpska (at entity level).
Key personalities
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| Radmanovic |
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Current presidency members of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina are Sulejman Tihic (SDA), Borislav Paravac (SDP) and Ivo Miro Jovic (HDZ). Tihic and Jovic are standing for re-election (at state level).
- In the Bosniak college, Sulejman Tihic’s main rival will be Haris Silajdzic of SzBiH.
- In the Croat college, Ivo Miro Jovic will be closely followed by Zeljko Komsic (SDP) and Bozo Ljubic (HZD-1990).
- In the Serb college, the main candidate will be the Minister of Administration and Local Government Nebojsa Radmanovic (SNSD).
The two other candidates, who are expected to have little success, are Mladen Bosic (SDS) and Zoran Tesanovic (Democratic Progress Party - PDP).
Current president of Republika Srpska is Dragan Cavic (SDS). Prime minister is Milorad Dodik (SNSD), who presides over a 16-member cabinet (8 Serbs, 5 Bosniak and 3 Croats).
Latest poll: IFIMES
Ever since the constitutional amendments were rejected in Parliament on 26th April, the political panorama of Bosnia-Herzegovina is divided in two: those who are for these amendments and those who are against them. All the more as negotiations on the modification of the Constitution will be resumed after the elections, two major blocs were formed among the Bosnian parties:
- in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, SDA, SDP and HDZ v. SziBH, SDU (Social Democratic Union), BOSS (Bosnian Party) and HDZ-1990;
- in Republika Srpska, SNSD and SP (Socialist Party) v. SDS and SRS (the Radicals);
- at the state level, SNSD v. SzBiH.
According to the latest and one of the most reliable public polls, that of the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), conducted between 21st and 25th August:
- 57.40 percent of the people surveyed declared that they will vote at the October elections, while as much as 15.90 percent of them were still undecided. At the last elections, the turnout was of 54.98 percent.
- If the elections were held today in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at entity level), 19.90 percent would vote for SDP, 19.80 percent for SzBiH and 19.30 percent for SDA. It is obvious that the return of the great nationalist demagogue Haris Silajdzic added more tension in the competition. SDA, though the most popular party among the Bosniak so far, seems to have lost ground. However, the fact that these parties follow each other with very slim margins indicates that we shall witness a most violent competition in the Federation. This was for the Bosniak parties.
- If the elections were held today in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (at entity level), 6.30 percent would vote for HDZ while 3.60 percent for HDZ-1990. Actually this is the big surprise of these elections: for the first time in the electoral history of the Federation, the Croat electorate is divided between two major parties. Croats, who have so far voted for HDZ, now have a different option. HDZ-1990 leadership claims that it represents the true spirit of HDZ of the 1990s.
- If the elections were held today in Republika Srpska (at entity level), 35.10 percent would vote for SNSD, 15.30 percent for SDS, 11.20 for SP and 3.80 percent for SRS. The Serb electorate seems to have already made their mind.
Although the contest seems to be rather relentless (especially in the Muslim-Croat Federation), one must not neglect the possibilities of post-election coalitions in step with the blocs above mentioned.
As for the three-presidential elections:
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| Ivo Miro Jovic |
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- In the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, 44.40 percent would vote for Haris Silajdzic (SzBiH) while 35.10 percent for Sulejman Tihic (SDA). At the last tri-presidential elections on 5th October 2002, Tihic beat his rival with only 2.5 percent. And Silajdzic seems to be prepared to do anything in order to win this time. Tihic may face very hard times on 1st October.
- Again in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, 27.10 percent would vote for Ivo Miro Jovic (HDZ), 24.40 percent for Zeljko Komsic (SDP) and 22.80 percent for Bozo Ljubic (HDZ-1990). For the first time, the Croat electorate seems that much divided.
- In Republika Srpska, Nebojsa Radmanovic will be probably elected without much ado as 39.20 percent of the people surveyed declared themselves in favour of the SNSD candidate.
- Finally, 36.10 percent of the Serbs would vote for the current Minister for Economy Milan Jelic (SNSD) if the presidential elections were held today in Republika Srpska. In the Serbian entity, SNSD is definitely the leading party in the polls.
Will Bosnia resist to the songs of nationalist sirens?
Who does not know the famous legend of Ulysses bound himself to the mast in order to resist the voice of sirens whose songs had the power of impelling the seamen to cast themselves into the sea to destruction?
The three constituent peoples of Bosnia-Herzegovina have their own trump cards: Bosniak are the most numerous, Serbs have their own entity and Croats are economically the strongest. Bosniak genuinely want a unified Bosnia-Herzegovina while Serbs dream of secession and unification with the motherland, Serbia. As to the Croats, they rather wait and see: instead of being a mere national minority in a unified Bosnia, they would probably rather join their own motherland, Croatia.
Will it be different this time? Will Bosnia resist to the songs of its nationalist sirens that have always succeeded to haunt its politics so far?
These elections will be a struggle of life-or-death for the three major nationalist parties, SDA, SDS and HDZ, which have marked the political life of Bosnia-Herzegovina for years since the end of war. These parties, though very popular in the past, have no more the leading position in the polls.
This would have been a good point for the future of Bosnia-Herzegovina where the most serious economic and social problems have always been overshadowed by the endless rhetoric over ethnic identities. However, the two emerging parties, namely SzBiH and SNSD do not look much different than their predecessors.
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| Milorad Dodik |
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Although SNSD has a serious and most promising party platform, its leader Milorad Dodik prefers indulging himself into the nationalistic rhetoric all the same. On 15th September, Dodik stated that the Serbs of Republika Srpska “did not see their long-term future in Bosnia”. What the Prime Minister wanted to hint at is quite clear. The nearer draws the unavoidable outcome of the Kosovo status talks, the more Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica incites, though implicitly, Republika Srpska to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Right after the independence referendum in Montenegro, Milorad Dodik provoked a sensation, pleading for a similar referendum in Republika Srpska for the secession of this entity from Bosnia-Herzegovina. Moreover, his defiant rejection of international demands to forge a single police force for Bosnia makes a good impression on the Serb electorate.
Milorad Dodik is a politician, who fought against the nationalist SDS of old times, led by the indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, and his party is known as being moderate. In fact, more than a pure hypocrite, Dodik looks like a politician, who opened Pandora’s Box just to have a bit more votes at the elections and now does not know how to cope with all these evil spirits coming from the notorious box. If he wins the elections, hard times would wait for Dodik, for he should satisfy those, who voted for him just for his new nationalistic rhetoric.
According to a recent poll undertaken by Partner, 75 percent of Bosniak would vote in favour of the secession of Republika Srpska if a referendum on the subject were to take place. And Haris Silajdzic is no less demagogue nor aggressive than his Serb counterparts.
Of course, such a referendum would be unconstitutional. However, did not Kosovo prove the power of one people’s will? The Bosnian elections, which coincide with the most crucial stage of the Kosovo status talks, will be decisive for the future of the country as well as for the future of the Balkans in general.
Related items:
"Bosnian Question" or Re-Balkanisation of the Balkans (14.8.06)
Balkans under the Threat of a Fragmentation Bomb Called Kosovo (3.8.06)
The Boiling Cauldron Bosnia-Herzegovina (16.7.06)
Republika Srpska: “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” (19.6.06)
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