Bulgaria is preparing to join the EU by the beginning of 2007. For a country that only 15 years ago was still a “People’s republic”, Bulgaria has made remarkable progress. On the other hand, Turkey, which desperately longs for the EU membership for over 45 years now, is once again left behind. After Greece, Turkey will see another Western neighbour off to the Union. And this time it is worse - a neighbouring and a former communist country outruns Turkey, the most loyal member of the Western bloc during the Cold War…
Turkey: “Stepchild of Europe”
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| Mahmut Celal Bayar |
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The scene is set in the residence of the President of the Turkish Republic in Ankara, on 11th August 1959. The recent application of Turkey for the European Economic Community membership was being discussed between the then President Mahmut Celal Bayar, his Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and the members of the cabinet. Just one MP wanted to criticise and express his worries about this rather rashly taken decision, only to be interrupted by the furious Premier, who told him: “What then? While the Greeks join the European community, we cannot just sit and watch. What would it be then that they can succeed and we cannot?”
Greece joined the EU in 1981. Turkey, though officially a candidate country at last in 2005, still stagnates. Worse still, another of its neighbours is preparing to join the European club by the beginning of 2007. For Turkey, Bulgaria’s accession to the EU is “worse” for two reasons: one historic, the other geographic. The historic reason is that Bulgaria was part of the Eastern communist bloc. However, in May 2004 many other former socialist republics joined the Union. Here precisely interferes the geographic factor: Bulgaria is the neighbour of Turkey.
Turkey, which was at the “right side” during the Cold War, is upset to see that now its loyalty does not mean anything to its European allies. As the French historian Marc Ferro put it on the eve of the accession of the Tens in 2004: “Turkey was a buffer zone between Europe and the Soviet Union. Now the Cold War is over. Well, thanks and so long!” When the Turkish guest of the TV programme, extremely outraged by this remark, protested, Ferro calmly answered: “Well, it’s what we call Realpolitik”.
The admission of the formerly communist Western Balkans to the EU and their “rehabilitation” through that way was the dream of the French politician and “father of Europe”, Robert Schuman. In this regard, between 2010 and 2015 Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia will all be EU members. As to Turkey, its way may be even longer than theirs.
What is it then that first the Greeks, later the Bulgarians -the two western neighbours of Turkey- “succeed, and Turkey cannot”?
Bulgaria: 26th member of the EU
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EU members and candidates map
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Bulgaria established diplomatic relations with the EU as early as 1988. In 1995, the country applied for full membership. Accession negotiations, which started in February 2000, ended in June 2004, six months ahead of schedule. Bulgaria, which signed the accession treaty in April 2005, is expected to join the EU on 1st January 2007, provided that the country addresses a number of outstanding issues.
Since 1995, Bulgaria has achieved great progress. Since 2003, the country is considered as a functioning market economy. At the political level, Bulgaria is a democratic and stable country.
Still, Bulgaria has to implement further reforms in fields of judicial and administrative structures, organised crime (including the trafficking of people) and high-level corruption. The agreement between Sofia and the Brussels reached in June 2004 includes a “safeguard clause”, which allows for the postponement of Bulgaria's accession by one year if the EU sees a “serious risk” of the country being unable to implement the required reforms. Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn is firm about this point: “If serious concerns remain, we will not hesitate to use the safeguards we have at our disposal”.
However, Bulgaria is not expected to stumble on its way to the full EU membership in 2007. True that European Commission’s monitoring report of May 2006 enumerates many deficiencies in different political and economic fields. However, some of them are relatively easy to meet and others require just good faith from the Bulgarian government.
Since the economic downturn in 1996, which caused the fall of the then Socialist government, Bulgaria proved to be a macro-economically stable country. Although the unemployment rate remains relatively high (11.5 percent in 2005), low inflation and the implementation of structural reforms improve the business environment.
The main problem for the country is its bad image in the European press. This also hinders Bulgaria from attracting more foreign direct investment. Moreover, the “enlargement exhaustion” of the EU may cause a serious headache for Bulgaria in October this year when the Commission is scheduled to review Bulgaria's accession status and decide whether the accession date can be maintained.
However, unlike Romania, the European Council has to vote unanimously for the postponement of Bulgaria’s accession by one year. This gives an undeniable advantage to Bulgaria.
The European Council’s review is scheduled for early October. On the other hand, Bulgaria will hold presidential election on 22nd October. The current President Georgi Parvanov from the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the leading presidential candidate according to polls is expected to be re-elected. In this regard, the year 2007 will probably be the year of BSP led by Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev.
Some are more equal than others
It is true that Bulgaria has made remarkable progress for a country that only 15 years ago was still a “People’s republic”. And the Bulgarians showed great determination on their way to Europe.
Indeed there are things that Bulgaria has been successful, while Turkey not. Along other specific and more serious problems, Turkey is mainly handicapped by its population. While Bulgaria counts only 7 million people, Turkey over 60 million. Although every school teacher in Turkey boasts about the “young population” of the country, this undeniably brings a lot of -sometimes even insoluble- problems with it, like high unemployment rate, huge educational gap between different social classes, etc.
However, there are some EU regulations that justify the famous motto, “some are more equal than others”.
Even if some day the membership of Turkey is approved, every single EU member state will have the right to hold a referendum on this decision and eventually reject it. For example, just
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| Ivaylo Kalfin |
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France could stop Turkey even if every other member approves its membership. Neither Bulgaria nor Romania nor any other candidate states in the past were subject to such a discriminatory regulation.
Another point is the question of minorities. It is true that after drastic assimilation measures of the past, Bulgaria unquestionably redeemed itself. Country’s major minority, the Turks are allowed to take part in ruling governments. However, as of 2006, the Bulgarian government has not implemented any laws legislating against the discrimination of Roma. Roma suffer from widespread discrimination in Bulgarian society. It is remarkable how the monitoring report of May just bends Bulgaria’s ear over the issue. It is ironically better than nothing, however. The EU turns a blind eye on Greece’s controversial minority policies for years.
The concept of the EU membership is dangerously becoming a tool of discrimination and “blackmailing” between peoples. One state equipped with the irresistible power of the EU membership can “blackmail” its aspiring neighbour any time. Recently Bulgaria gave a good example of this. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin “warned” that their support for Macedonia’s EU bid would not be “unconditional”.
The EU should urge its members to be opener and farsighted. However, some of the doyens of the EU themselves, with their ambiguous, even discriminatory policy towards Turkey, are definitely not a good model for the newcomers to the European club.
Related items:
Sofia - Skopje: New High-Tension Power Line of the Balkans (29.07.06)
The Macedonia-Bulgaria Dispute or Endless Torment of Clio (16.03.06)
Bulgarian Turks: From Assimilation to Power (20.11.05)
Croatia and Serbia on Their Way to the EU, as Turkey Left Behind? (24.10.05)
Russian Intelligence Keeps an Eye on the American Military in Bulgaria (18.08.05)
Bulgaria Has Its Government, but the Crisis is not Over (16.08.05)
Politicians Drive Foreign Investors Out of Bulgaria (13.08.05)
Bulgaria: Secret Bargains to Overcome Government Crisis (11.08.05)
Why the EU Lets Rumania and Bulgaria In? (05.08.05)
The Bulgarians Against the Turks (27.07.05)
Anti-Turkish “Croatia Front” Is Growing (19.07.05)
Turkey and Bulgaria - Rapprochement Through Customs (20.06.05)
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